Aids eats 0.6% away from GDP
2005-03-15 14:28
Cape Town - Researchers "really don't know" the exact economic impact of HIV and Aids on the South African economy, but best estimates show a decline of between 0.3% and 0.6% in GDP growth, parliament's science and technology portfolio committee heard on Tuesday.
What was known was that the Statistics South Africa (SSA) figure of 9 479 deaths from "HIV disease" in 2001 was "obviously not correct", Medical Research Council interim president Prof Tony Mbewu told MPs.
This figure, representing 2.8% of the total number of reported natural causes of death in that year, was contained in SSA's latest (2005) survey.
"This is clearly below what we're actually experiencing in our hospitals and clinics," Mbewu said.
According to a "National Burden of Disease" study conducted by MRC researchers, out of a total of 556 585 deaths in 2000, an estimated 165 859 (29.8%) were caused by HIV and Aids.
Responding to a question on the discrepancy between the two sets of figures, Mbewu said "it clearly isn't 2.8% deaths in 2001 from Aids".
"Is it 29.8% in 2000? I really don't know. All I do know is there are scores of thousands of people in South Africa dying of Aids-related conditions... and we need to strengthen interventions to reduce that toll."
Vague and complex relationship
On the impact of the disease on the local economy, Mbewu said experts suggested "that it's probably in the region of a reduction in GDP of between 0.3% and 0.6%, but we really don't know, and it's a vague and complex relationship".
This estimate was based on there being a decline in the population growth rate of 1.3%.
On how the economy was being affected, he said disruption to manufacturing caused by sickness and death of employees had an adverse impact on productivity.
"Many of the people who die from this disease are in their 20s or 30s - economically-active young people, who often leave behind... family units that have lost a breadwinner. This is a major economic impact.
"In terms of work and return to work, the strategic industries in (South Africa), including the country's mines, report HIV prevalence rates of up to 25%.
"Clearly this impacts upon productivity within those mines - miners fall sick after several years... and are unable to work.
"The premise is that antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive treatment for HIV and Aids may assist them to return to work, but the data as to whether or not that really happens to a significant degree is still lacking."
Hospitals filled with people living with HIV and Aids
He said the decline in the rate of growth of the country's labour force resulted in a fall in the rate of growth of GDP.
Another major impact was on the country's health system.
"Those of us who visit the public hospitals in this country... know that many of the beds... are filled with people who are living with HIV and (Aids-related conditions).
"So there clearly is a burden in terms of our health system."
Mbewu also warned on a lack of scientists able to conduct research into the disease and related matters.
"The body of scientists within this country, particularly black scientists and women scientists, is woefully inadequate to ensure... (South Africa) can make its population healthy and prevent disease, and also grow its economy in a sustainable fashion."
Mbewu said econometric models needed to be refined to measure the Aids impact.
- SAPA