'Angola won't go back to war'
2006-09-18 17:28
Luanda - Angola is gearing up to register voters for its first elections since 1992, but observers say they still have no guarantees the government will hold a ballot seen essential to establishing democracy.
Angola's 27-year civil war ended in April 2002 and voter registration of its more than 13 million citizens is set to begin in November and conclude next June.
That raises the possibility the vote, originally scheduled for this year but then delayed, would occur in late 2007.
But observers say without a firm date for the poll there are no certainties on the future of Angola, sub-Saharan Africa's second largest oil producer after Nigeria.
"When you mention 2007, everyone laughs in your face and says 'yeah, you mean 2010'," said one foreign aid official.
"The problem is that there's not very much political motivation to have elections early. The message you get is 'we'd like to do it well and not in a hurry."
Angola has been stable since the end of the war in 2002, with the formerly Marxist MPLA government led by Jose Eduardo dos Santos firmly in power and the former Unita rebel group attempting to reconfigure itself as a regular opposition party.
There is no certainty on whether presidential and legislative elections will take place simultaneously or apart, but it is widely believed they will be held separately.
Speculation over Dos Santos' poor health has raised questions on whether he will be the MPLA candidate.
But with no sign of an alternative, most observers believe he will take the party through the next elections which it is expected to win.
Fear of violence
Before that happens, however, voters must be registered and there are huge logistical hurdles to be overcome for that to take place, including reaching much of the population who live in remote rural areas.
The government has also yet to ask for any technical help from the international community, despite concerns that basic issues such as transport, training and verification have yet to be resolved.
Voter education has also lagged - which could dampen popular response to the registration process.
Angola's last election, while deemed generally free and fair by the international community, led quickly to fresh fighting between the MPLA and Unita, leaving many voters with the fear that a new poll could spell new violence.
"People's experiences of elections in Angola have been pretty traumatic," said Allan Cain, who heads the NGO Development Workshop.
"The memory of that makes people fearful.
To get people to buy into democracy this time is going to be a real challenge," he added.
Other analysts say elections alone may not be enough to satisfy a population, most of whom live in dire poverty despite an unprecedented economic boom since the war ended.
Leaders not doing enough
An oil boom helped push Angola's economic growth to 18% last year and the government expects further growth, as oil production rises from its current 1.4 million barrels a day to two million b/d by the end of 2007.
But allegations of massive corruption and mismanagement continue to be levelled at the country's leaders, who are blamed for not doing enough to improve the lives of ordinary Angolans.
"(Growth) is not trickling down to the people as much as we would like it to.
We're growing but we're not there yet," said one senior government official.
However, there are fears the run-up to elections could be marred by unrest, as the population has yet to feel any real dividends of peace, now in its fifth year.
"I believe Angola won't go back to war. But there are lots of conflict risks, especially in the run up to elections," said Cain.