Another day, another crisis
2010-02-17 11:21
Nairobi - It seems like hardly a day goes by without Kenya's coalition plunging into a crisis, sparking fears that the East African nation will be pitched into a repeat of the tribal violence that followed the disputed 2007 presidential election.
This time, the parties are squaring up over two ministers suspended by Prime Minister Raila Odinga on Sunday pending corruption investigations, only to be re-instated by President Mwai Kibaki a few hours later.
Kibaki said the power-sharing deal did not give Odinga the necessary authority to suspend ministers, further enraging his premier. Ministers loyal to Odinga announced they were staging a cabinet boycott and the attorney general warned of a "political and constitutional crisis".
While such warnings sound ominous, last year saw several blow-ups, including one in which Odinga threatened to call for early elections. But the coalition held together, and analysts feel this time around is likely to be no different.
"I think both parties may not find it strategic for the coalition to collapse," James Shikwati, analyst and CEO of the Inter Region Economic Network, told the German Press Agency dpa.
The fact that the quarrels have focused on issues, although with personalities in the background, and that Odinga and Kibaki's rival tribes have not returned to violence shows Kenya is slowing maturing politically, he said.
ICC investigations
The larger concern is that the latest round in the ding-dong battle will further hold up Kenya's reform process, which is already limping weakly along.
At least 1 300 people died and hundreds of thousands were displaced during almost three months of violence following the December 2007 poll, which supporters of Odinga accused Kibaki's party of rigging.
Analysts and observers say reforms recommended by independent investigations into the violence - including changes to the electoral process, land policy, the police and the constitution - are crucial to avoid violence at the next elections, due in 2012.
Little concrete has been achieved, however, and the government has also avoided setting up a local tribunal to try those accused of orchestrating the violence, forcing the International Criminal Court to begin investigations.
Former United Nations chief Kofi Annan, who brokered the power-sharing deal, warned in December Kenya only had until the end of 2010 to implement the reforms.
Benefits of competition
"If you go beyond 2010, and basic reforms are not in place, the election in 2012 will cast such a long shadow, there will be such heavy politicking, that I don't think you are going to get anybody to focus on reform," he said at the end of visit to Nairobi.
Less than two months into the year, Anna's warning appears to have gone unheeded.
Shikwati believes the latest battle is part of the electioneering and that by attempting to act on corruption in such a forceful manner, Odinga is carving out his own identity for the 2012 polls.
But unlike Annan, he thinks the political maneuvering could work in Kenya's benefit.
"We should not overlook the benefits of competition, we have two centres who have to compete to show they are working," he said. "I think it is still possible to have reforms finished by the end of the year."
Another problem with the squabbling is that it often overshadows the issue at hand, in this case the corruption that has long blighted the East African nation.
Investigation in scams
Odinga's move to suspend Agriculture Minister William Ruto, a former close ally, and Education Minister Sam Ongeri was a bold one, as top-level politicians are never brought to book despite being implicated in Kenya's many scandals.
The ministers were suspended pending investigation into scams involving maize and primary school education.
A PricewaterhouseCoopers audit recently revealed that $26m of government money had been diverted in the maize scam, while government auditors said $1m went missing from a scheme to provide free primary school education.
Britain and the US have suspended aid to the education programme over the scandal.
Both ministers protest their innocence, but Kenyans are tired of seeing their politicians emerge unscathed from scandals.
Shikwati believes Kenya, led by the media and government, should seize the moment and root out corruption rather than being sucked into political drama.
"I think this is the best opportunity the country has to push focus onto the issue of corruption, rather than power plays," he said.
- SAPA