Bird flu 'worst global threat'
2006-01-26 21:36
Davos - The global threat that most preoccupies the world's business leaders is the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus, according to a study released on Thursday at the World Economic Forum.
The report said other global risks, such as terrorist attacks and the possibility of an even bigger oil price shock, were deemed just as dangerous, but less likely to happen in the coming year.
The H5N1 bird flu strain had ravaged poultry stocks in Asia since 2003 and recently spread to Europe through migratory birds.
World health authorities feared the disease could mutate into a form that spreads easily from person-to-person, sparking a flu pandemic that could kill millions of people.
Human-to-human transmission
So far, though, human cases of the disease had been mostly limited to people who had come into direct contact with infected birds. According to the World Health Organisation, 83 people had died of the disease since 2003.
The 22-page risk study, which was released by a panel of companies and experts, said: "If the avian flu H5N1 virus mutates to enable human-to-human transmission, it may disrupt our global society and economy in an unprecedented way."
It said death tolls could be on the level of the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic, which was estimated to have killed between 40 million and 50 million people worldwide.
Terrorist attacks
The report also said it was very likely that five million more people would become infected with HIV and tuberculosis this year.
While the report predicted a number of small-scale terrorist attacks in 2006, it said large-scale simultaneous attacks were less likely, primarily because the capability of terrorists to co-ordinate their activities had diminished.
The study said: "Terrorist attacks involving aircraft and high explosives have already had a massive global impact. The capacity of terrorist organisations to act globally in a co-ordinated way has diminished."
It said the risk of a major attack would rise in coming years.
Earthquake hits Tokyo
The report warned of other possible severe shocks, such as an oil price spike to $100 a barrel or an earthquake hitting Tokyo, but said those risks had a low likelihood of occurring.
The study said: "The world suffered an oil-price spike above $70 in 2005. The world's reliance on hydrocarbons and growing concerns about the geopolitics of supply mean that oil prices will inevitably be an issue of concern in 2006 and beyond."
It said that even if oil prices should rise above $100, it was "relatively unlikely" that they would remain so high for an extended period.
It said the Pakistan earthquake provided a lesson that the world lacked the capacity to respond sufficiently to major disasters and "a warning that many parts of the world remain highly vulnerable to natural disaster".
- AP