Crucial test for Angola
2008-09-02 11:25
Luanda - Angola, Africa's biggest oil producer and still recovering from a devastating civil war, goes to the polls on Friday in a crucial test of its democracy.
Six years on from a peace deal which ended a 27-year civil war that killed 500 000 people, millions remain mired in poverty despite rocketing growth brought about by the country's huge oil and diamond reserves.
This will be the first attempt since aborted 1992 elections to hold a poll, and no one expects President Jose Eduardo dos Santos to lose his grip on power.
Dos Santos and his Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) was originally a Marxist-Leninist group but is now nominally social democratic.
The opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), has created little momentum since 2002, given the ruling MPLA's control of the country's huge oil and diamond reserves.
And the opposition has complained about "a climate of threats, intimidation and violence" in the run-up to the vote, saying four of its supporters have been killed.
"They (UNITA) do not have a chance in hell because it is not going to be a level playing field," said Hussein Salomon, director of the South African Centre for International Political Studies.
The damage has been done
Salomon and other analysts point to one-sided campaign coverage on state television, which has extolled the achievements of Dos Santos and the MPLA, despite an official obligation to devote equal air time to all parties.
The MPLA holds 129 of 220 seats in parliament, while UNITA has 70 seats.
The poll itself could be free and fair but the damage has already been done, according to Alex Vines of the London-based Chatam House think-tank.
"In the run up to the elections there has been some trouble. I myself have been an eyewitness to the harassment of opposition supporters. Some of the violence has already occurred."
Paula Roque of South Africa's Institute for Security Studies, said: "The international community is also interested in keeping the status quo because there are a lot of overriding economic and political interests."
Interest in Angola's riches has sent investors flocking to the nation, resulting in growth rates averaging around 20% since 2005.
Vines said the election amounts to the country's "re-legitimisation" following the failed 1992 poll and marks the end of the post-conflict era".
Eight million of the 17 million population have registered to vote, but Vines, who was a UN observer in 1992, is sceptical whether this will translate into voter enthusiasm.
Maria Cristo, a 24-year-old student in Luanda, said she would not vote. "I don't see any improvement. I don't see what any of the parties can do to change things."
With unemployment running at an estimated 40%, jobless Elias Aviao, 55, said the elections "are important so we can elect parties that will change what is bad".
Dos Santos' critics say that in the six years since a 2002 peace deal, his government has created a rich middle class but failed to distribute the country's massive oil revenues to the poor.
'Crisis of society'
"Angola is producing nearly two million barrels a day and given the price the oil is at, we can say that the government is getting huge revenues...The government is not very transparent on disclosing what goes where, what it is getting in terms of oil revenues," said Luanda-based economist Raul Lopes.
"Though there is a lot of emphasis on national reconstruction, we are still far away in terms of responding to the crisis of society," said Lopes.
"When you travel in the countryside you notice that it is abandoned to itself, the populations are far away from water points, from electricity. Misery is very visible."
In its 2007 report Transparency International ranked the west African nation as the 32nd most corrupt state.