Ethiopia-Eritrea war unlikely
2005-11-17 09:18
Nairobi - Mounting tension and bellicose talk between Ethiopia and Eritrea in recent months for the precise path of their border is unlikely to break into war, say analysts, despite UN warnings that the situation there is "potentially volatile".
But, even more worrying were UN reports that the arch-foes were massing troops and tanks outside the buffer zone, with both sides seeking to justify the presence of soldiers at the frontier.
Addis Ababa confirmed the deployment, saying it was meant to protect national sovereignty, while Asmara argued that its forces were assisting local farmers to harvest.
Dangerous situation
According to his spokesperson, UN chief Kofi Annan early this month called for restraint against any movement that "could be misunderstood" and lead "to a very dangerous situation".
Though cautious, analysts said the foes were quite unable to fight at the moment.
A territorial dispute sparked a full-scale war in May 1998 and the conflict snowballed into heavy fighting interspersed with lulls, until it ended after the signing of a peace deal in Algiers in 2000. About 80 000 people died.
The analysts, who asked to remain unnamed, said Ethiopia was incapable of kicking up a fresh flare-up, amid internal strife about disputed May 15 elections that early this month resulted in the death of at least 48 people.
Political situation
In June, similar demonstrations claimed 37 lives.
A diplomat based in Addis Ababa said: "It is not certain that the government can mobilise the country. It is not the same political situation as it was in 1998."
And, despite Eritrea's warning that a new war with Ethiopia was ineluctible, analysts contend that it had no military wherewithal to make good its threats.
Another diplomat in Asmara said "President Issaias Afeworki knows that he has no military chance to win a war".
Notwithstanding, Western powers and the UN had urged both sides to resume dialogue on the stalled peace process, which was often marked by hostile and indirect talk, taking the form of accusatory communiques and declarations to the press.
International commission
The contentious 1 000km border was not clearly defined after Eritrea officially gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993.
The root of the situation lies in the 2002 ruling by an international commission on the exact path of the boundary that placed a barren border town of Badme on the Eritrean side, annoying Addis Ababa.
Despite having pledged to respect the decision as "final and binding", Ethiopia rejected it on the grounds that it splits families.
Addis Ababa had refused to budge on this point, while Eritrea had been equally resistant to pressure for negotiations, saying there was nothing to talk about and demanding sanctions be taken against Ethiopia.