I Coast poll may not resolve conflict
2010-08-26 08:42
Abidjan - The prospect of peace in Ivory Coast after the government announced an election date has left Ivorians cautiously optimistic about the future.
But few are holding their breath after years of delays, and analysts say that badly run polls would not only fail to address the West African nation's divisions over land, power and identity but would also risk worsening them.
On the palm-lined boulevards flanked by skyscrapers that used to be its neighbours' envy, residents complain of how dirty, trash-strewn and run-down Abidjan has become.
They know that only the vote planned for October 31 can end the malaise and reunite the world's top cocoa producer, after a 2002-3 war tore it in two. They also know that if it goes ahead, there is the risk of more trouble.
"When there's peace here and stability, investors will come and put us back on track to development," said trader Marcelin Amian, by a traffic-choked roundabout.
"But is an election necessarily going to solve all our problems? No, I don't think so."
This mix of hope and pessimism has become characteristic of a nation yearning for its prosperous past yet stuck in a quagmire prolonged by squabbling politicians and warlords.
The election aims to end a crisis that cut growth in West Africa's former hub and held back reform of a cocoa sector that supplies 40% of the world market but is in decline.
Deep divisions
They are five years overdue. Rows over voter identity and rebel disarmament have scuppered half a dozen dates, while President Laurent Gbagbo denies opposition accusations he is deliberately holding back the process to stay in power.
Partisan politics pitting Gbagbo against rivals Henri Konan Bedie and Alassane Ouattara have left scars on a nation still half run by rebels, says Patrick N'Gouan, head of the Ivorian Civil Society Convention.
N'Gouan is sceptical about what the polls can achieve.
"The international community and political elite think with an election all our problems are solved," he says.
"We had them in 1990, 1995 and 2000 and none ended our troubles. They simply brought more political instability."
Slow progress exasperates donors - especially the United Nations and France, which each run costly peacekeeping operations.
They are keen to see polls, but realise it may not be a cure all and could reignite trouble if results are disputed.
"It depends on how it's handled, on how they make compromises, on how much they have the general interest in mind," UN spokesperson Hamadoun Toure said.
A programme for temporarily disarming rebels for the duration of the election started this month and is supposed to finish by the end of it, but may not be on time.
Tensions simmer
Producing a final voter list remains a main hurdle.
Voter registration collapsed into political wrangling in February over names whose Ivorian identity was disputed.
Gbagbo's supporters suspected some were imposters from Burkina Faso and Mali, raising touchy questions about Ivorian nationality that have already caused one war.
Opposition says Gbagbo has sought to remove voters unlikely to elect him, a charge he denies. Gbagbo's party is ostensibly now more happy with the list, though it has hardly changed.
"It's hard to have a totally clean list but this will be acceptable," said Affi N'Guessan, Gbagbo's party chief.
"We just need to have trust that the list is not riddled with errors or manipulated by political opponents."
The electoral commission says most names are processed and the mechanism for contesting the remaining ones in court finishes on Thursday. The United Nations has called on politicians to leave it to the judges, but diplomats admit that is unlikely.
"If they're happy with the list, why isn't it out?" said one. "There are lots more excuses to delay if they aren't."
The row over voter lists exposes a deeper one about identity. Ivory Coast has long attracted migrants from arid neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso who came to work cocoa plantations, but land disputes between them have flared since the 1980s.
Populist politicians discriminated between nationals and "foreigners" - in some cases northern Ivorians with foreign-sounding names - eventually fuelling the rebellion.
For Burkinabe farmers such as Issouf Belem, in west Ivory Coast, elections are his best hope, although he says he has no intention of seeking Ivorian nationality to vote in them.
"If there are elections and Ivorians could resolve their problems, that would help us foreigners a lot," he said, spreading cocoa beans with his feet on a mat to dry them.
"If they can't, that makes us very afraid."
