Mbeki's diplomacy a success
2005-05-19 22:03
Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki's peace initiatives are showing progress in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ivory Coast although the advances are fragile, analysts say.
A ceasefire deal was signed at the weekend between Burundi's President Domitien Ndayizeye and the leader of the last remaining rebel group, the National Liberation Force (FNL) while a new post-war constitution was adopted in the Democratic Republic of Congo on Monday.
Also at the weekend, an agreement was signed in Yamoussoukro between the Ivorian army and rebel forces setting June 27 as the date to begin disarming their fighters.
"Each of those developments is important to the peace processes in each of those countries.
"However, I would caution against being overly optimistic about the significance of these developments," says Kurt Shillinger of the South African Institute of International Affairs.
Shillinger described South Africa's stepped up diplomacy in Africa as "one of the great dividends" of the transition from apartheid to democratic rule since 1994.
But he added the ruling ANC "tends to have an overly optimistic view of its mediation efforts".
In Ivory Coast, which has been divided since a rebel uprising against President Laurent Gbagbo in 2002, Mbeki's mediation has yielded tangible results on many points since an agreement was reached in Pretoria on April 6 that effectively relaunched the peace effort in the west African country.
Despite this progress widely recognised even by France, which had several months ago said that Mbeki's mediation had been fruitless, the situation in Ivory Coast remains unpredictable.
"I still would think the realistic view of (Ivory Coast) right now is that the elections in October are still very much an open question," said Shillinger, referring to the October 30 presidential election.
Burundi, which is trying to extricate itself from 12 years of war that has claimed some 300nbsp;000 dead, is a "success story" for South African mediation efforts, says Prince Mashele of the Institute for Security Studies.
"But the challenges are similar to those of the Democratic Republic of Congo and other countries emerging from conflicts: How do you ensure you build credible and democratic institutions? How do you address issues of development so the peace process can be sustainable?"
Mashele said Mbeki's insistence on holding all-inclusive talks had been key to advancing the peace processes in these countries.
"That makes it possible for rebels, who often suspect everyone who comes to mediate, to perceive Mbeki as a credible mediator," said Mashele.