'Net closing on bin Laden'
2006-02-22 21:25
London - There will be at least one
terrorist attack on a European target this year and either Osama
bin Laden or his right hand man will be killed or captured in
2006, British security experts predicted on Thursday.
Furthermore, there will be no civil war in Iraq as
insurgents lose the support of the mainstream population, and
Iran will back down in its nuclear dispute with the West without
sanctions or military action, Aegis Defence Services said.
In its annual terrorism report, Aegis, which assesses global
risks for governments and international companies, said the net
was closing on the leaders of bin Laden's al-Qaeda group.
It called bin Laden a "spent force", whose only role was as
a talisman, and predicted he or his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri,
would be out of circulation in the next 12 months.
At the same time, it said, al-Qaeda was showing signs of
moving away from destruction towards more "earthly" political
aims, meaning talks might be possible with their successors.
"Al-Qaeda is striving to cast themselves in a political
role," Aegis managing director of research and intelligence
Dominic Armstrong told Reuters.
"There is going to be more practical engagement."
But Aegis, which correctly predicted there would be a
large-scale bombing in the UK last year, said growing
radicalisation of Islamist youths in Europe, combined with
social and economic alienation, would mean further attacks.
Britain and Italy top targets
Britain and Italy remained the most likely targets but
France, Spain and the Benelux countries were also at risk.
"We are not going to see a 9/11 level of attack or that sort
of destructive spectacular," Armstrong said.
"It is more likely to be a number of smaller attacks against
softer targets with an economic knock-on effect."
Weapons of mass destruction would not be used, he said.
"They do not own and will not own nuclear weapons or lethal
pathogens," he said.
"The successful attacks that take place
this year will be conventional."
Aegis, which has a $293m US contract to co-ordinate
security for contractors in Iraq and has 1 000 staff on the
ground, said the situation there was not as bad as the media
portrayed and the country was not on the verge of civil war.
"The insurgency will continue, but it will increasingly be
down to criminals and foreign fighters as mainstream Iraqis
become involved in the political process," Armstrong said.
He said 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces were trouble-free.
"Foreign fighters will be made to feel less welcome and that
will be a turning point for Iraq.
"For all the insurgency, the
political process has not been delayed by a single day."
The report also predicted Iran would back down in its
dispute with the West over its nuclear ambitions with an
agreement to allow it to use foreign-supplied enriched uranium
for reactors, thus avoiding sanctions or any military action.
"They are going to take it as far as they can, but they will
step back," Armstrong said.
"It's only aggressive brinkmanship."