SA intel warns: Long, abusive campaign in Nigeria

2014-07-09 21:14
South African National Defence Force Intelligence Division

South African National Defence Force Intelligence Division

Multimedia   ·   User Galleries   ·   News in Pictures Send us your pictures  ·  Send us your stories

Pretoria - Nigeria faces a prolonged battle to quash the bloody Boko Haram insurgency despite a "hardline" campaign that has witnessed rights abuses by both the state and the militants, according to a South African intelligence assessment obtained by AFP.

A National Defence Force defence intelligence division briefing - delivered to visiting Chinese Defence Minister Chang Wanquan on Tuesday - offered a blunt assessment of Africa's crises, including Nigeria's fight against Boko Haram and its Islamist offshoot Ansaru.

The government in Abuja faces a "prolonged armed insurgency" with little prospect for resolution, the briefing said, adding that the "security situation in Nigeria is expected to deteriorate".

"Prospects for conflict resolution are likely to remain bleak - government persists [in a] hardline counter-insurgency response to the crisis that has degenerated into human rights abuses by the state and militants alike."

Thousands of people have died in Boko Haram's bloody five-year campaign to establish an Islamic state in the mainly Muslim north of Nigeria.

The insurgency, long a worry for regional governments, gained worldwide notoriety following the April kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls from the remote town of Chibok in Borno state.

Deadly bombings and killings have become an almost daily occurrence in Africa's largest economy, with civilians bearing the brunt of the violence.

South Africa and Nigeria, both African powerhouses, are also political and economic rivals, vying for influence in Beijing as well as lucrative Chinese contracts.

Nigeria earlier this year surpassed South Africa as the continent's largest economy.

There are heightened fears that the Boko Haram insurgency is spreading after three car bombings in Abuja in as many months and a similar attack in Lagos last month.

Violence

Security experts say the overstretched and under-resourced Nigerian military is incapable of fighting an effective counter-insurgency against an enemy that is believed to have ties to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.

Rights groups, including Amnesty International, have accused the Nigerian authorities of carrying out hundreds of extra judicial killings and disappearances every year.

But the government has repeatedly rejected the accusations.

South African intelligence also warned the Chinese of a "threat of increased militancy in the Niger Delta," where the bulk of Nigeria's roughly two million barrels of oil a day are produced, as well as piracy off the Nigerian coast.

A rise in piracy off the Gulf of Guinea has corresponded with a decline off the coast of Somalia.

"Attacks [are] launched primarily from Nigeria, with the aim of stealing from vessels," the intelligence report said.

"Levels of violence [are] higher as pirates are less concerned with maintaining the well-being of hostages than their Somalian counterparts," the South Africans claimed.

It is not clear if the briefing - which is not marked with any security classification - is based on first hand intelligence or open source material.

The South African National Defence Force intelligence division is responsible for gathering and evaluating foreign military intelligence and for counter-intelligence within the military.

The report also provided a security overview of several African regions including the "ongoing lawlessness" and "widespread humanitarian crisis" in the Central African Republic.

It said the Christian anti-balaka groups and "rogue elements" made up of members of former armed forces were "becoming increasingly organised" but with no clear political objective.

In Somalia, the defence intelligence report said it believed that the end of a partial suspension of a UN arms embargo would "assist in developing the security sector".

But, it warned, there is a "risk of weapons finding their way to al-Shabaab or other hostile militias".

Read more on:    al-shabaab  |  sandf  |  pretoria  |  nigeria
NEXT ON NEWS24X
SHARE:

Read News24’s Comments Policy

24.com publishes all comments posted on articles provided that they adhere to our Comments Policy. Should you wish to report a comment for editorial review, please do so by clicking the 'Report Comment' button to the right of each comment.

Comment on this story
14 comments
Add your comment
Comment 0 characters remaining
 

Inside News24

 
SPONSORED CONTENT
When is a mountain more than just a mountain? 2014-12-18 07:26

When it’s an adventure! A group of Old Mutual employees found out how much is enough courage, endurance and camaraderie to take on Africa's highest peak.

/News
 

Joburg hot spots for cocktails, craft beer, tapas and wine!

It’s the season to be jolly – so we’ve rounded up some new Joburg hot spots!

 
 

I love summer.24

Christmas lingerie to make this festive season the best one ever!
13 things you might not know about Disneyland
The craziest deaths of 2014
How to make this a sensual, sexy summer!

Jobs in Cape Town [change area]

Property [change area]

Travel - Look, Book, Go!

Kalahari.com - shop online today

2DAYS ONLY – 30% off Appliances

Coffee makers, blenders, fans, juicers and more. T&Cs apply. Shop now!

2 DAYS ONLY – 40% off books

Get 40% off when you buy 2 books. For two days only! T&Cs apply. Buy now!

Up to 50% off on outdoor gear

Save on chairs, blankets, cooler bags, umbrellas and more. Shop now!

Save on Samsung

Cameras, mobile phones, TVs, Tablets and more. While stocks last. Shop now!

Grand Theft Auto 5

Now available on PS4, Xbox One and PC from R649. Buy now!

OLX Free Classifieds [change area]

Samsung Galaxy s4

Mobile, Cell Phones in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 24

Best bargain in big bay

Real Estate, Houses - Apartments for Sale in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

VW Golf 6, 1.6 Trendline (Excellent condition)

Vehicles, Cars in South Africa, Western Cape, Cape Town. Date October 25

Horoscopes
Aquarius
Aquarius

There is so much going on around you and inside your head. You may want to take your ideas to the next level. Romance may be...read more

There are new stories on the homepage. Click here to see them.
 
English
Afrikaans
isiZulu

Hello 

Create Profile

Creating your profile will enable you to submit photos and stories to get published on News24.


Please provide a username for your profile page:

This username must be unique, cannot be edited and will be used in the URL to your profile page across the entire 24.com network.

Settings

Location Settings

News24 allows you to edit the display of certain components based on a location. If you wish to personalise the page based on your preferences, please select a location for each component and click "Submit" in order for the changes to take affect.








Facebook Sign-In

Hi News addict,

Join the News24 Community to be involved in breaking the news.

Log in with Facebook to comment and personalise news, weather and listings.