Sao Tome: Anarchy looms
2003-07-21 21:52
Pretoria - The West African archipelago of Sao Tome and Principe (STP) could be plunged into anarchy and bloodshed within days if the tension there is not diffused quickly.
Angola and Nigeria, which both have interests in the island group's rich oil reserves, are apparently prepared to intervene after a military junta of army officers and opposition politicians took control of the country in a coup last week.
In a situation report to the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), conflict analyst Johann Smith said that, despite African Union calls for calm, the situation could become unstable.
Recently elected AU chair President Joachim Chissano of Mozambique urgently flew to Nigeria shortly after the coup to discuss a possible solution with President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Smith said the junta would not be able to withstand military intervention by Angola or Nigeria.
Instability could further delay negotiations already at an advanced stage for the oil reserves worth billions of rands.
Some experts believe the coup was orchestrated by groups vying for control of the oil reserves and wishing to scare off rivals.
Smith said this could plunge the entire region into renewed chaos, especially neighbours such as Equatorial Guinea.
SA training
Smith confirmed reports that a number of junta members had received military training in South Africa.
They had taken part in an unsuccessful invasion of STP as members of an opposition group based in Gabon.
Some had enlisted in the old SA Defence Force?s 32 Battalion to fight in the border war in Angola.
In 1990 the STP government granted some of them amnesty for the invasion. After 1994 they returned to the archipelago and were reinstated in the army there.
STP opposition leader Albino Santos is one of the soldiers trained by 32 Battalion. He currently serves as the junta?s spokesperson.
Arlecio Costa and Sabino dos Santos were among his comrades in the battalion. Costa later served in the Special Forces.
He says the opposition group, which forms part of the junta, only
received 1.7% of the vote in individual elections.
The group has no political programme and appears disorganised.
Nevertheless, its goals enjoy much sympathy among inhabitants.