Somalia slides towards war
2006-07-24 10:30
Nairobi - Neglected by the world for years, Somalia appeared on the verge of a war that could escalate into a major regional conflict and play into the hands of hardline Islamists.
Six weeks after taking Mogadishu and other southern towns, the Islamists were engaged in an increasingly bellicose standoff with a fragile, Ethiopian-backed interim government based in the provincial town of Baidoa.
With Islamist militia moving their closest yet to Baidoa this week, and witnesses saying Ethiopian soldiers had poured over the border to defend the government, the prospect of yet another major conflict in Somalia had risen sharply.
John Prendergast of the International Crisis Group said: "The risk of full-scale war increases by the day", citing the government's "foolish" boycott of peace talks in Sudan and what he called provocative Islamist militia movements.
Eritrea 'playing an influential role'
Analysts and diplomats said while Ethiopia was apparently spoiling for a fight, warning that it would crush the Islamists if they attacked Baidoa, another regional player - Eritrea - was playing a lesser-known, but also influential role on the other side.
Already criticised by the United Nations for funnelling arms to the Islamists during their rise to power in Mogadishu earlier this year, the Eritreans were continuing to supply weapons, funds and personnel, the experts believed.
One analyst, who had close contacts with all sides in the Somali crisis, but asked not to be named, said: "The Eritrean support is the backbone of the Islamists' military structure. In Mogadishu, the Eritrean presence is everywhere. Believe me, I've seen them."
Ethiopia's motives were obvious: it wished to remain the dominant power in the Horn of Africa; it had traditionally sought to influence Somalia and contained radical Islam there; and it feared Islamist aspirations in its Ogaden ethnic Somali region.
Eritreans 'getting involved in Somalia'
Eritrea's thinking was less clear - beyond hatred of Ethiopia. Asmara became independent in 1991 after a 30-year uprising and later fought a border conflict with Ethiopia.
An African diplomat, who tracked the Horn, said: "It is purely to obstruct Ethiopia that the Eritreans are getting involved in Somalia, they don't have big past links or interests."
Both Addis Ababa and Asmara denied any presence in Somalia, but their statements were taken with a pinch of salt by many.
Washington and other Western powers were already militarily stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, and distracted by the crisis in Lebanon.
Foreign intervention could anyway inflame the Somali conflict by heightening popular support for the Islamists and attracting foreign radicals.
The Islamists were led by a man on the United States and UN terrorism lists, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, and were widely believed to be harbouring a small number of both foreign and local radicals.