Southern Sudan risks new war
2006-04-03 21:03
Nairobi - Southern Sudan risks plunging into fresh conflict if Khartoum fails to genuinely implement a landmark peace agreement with former southern rebels signed last year, bringing an end to 21 years of fighting, a policy panel warned on Monday.
International Crisis Group (ICG) said the ruling party had the capacity to ensure the peace deal is implemented but lacked the political will, while the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), with which it signed the pact, had its commitment dented by disorganisation.
"There is a real risk of renewed conflict down the road unless the NCP (National Congress Party) begins to implement the (agreement) in good faith, and the SPLM becomes a stronger and more effective implementing partner," the group said in a report entitled "Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement: The Long Road Ahead."
"Sudan's peace agreement is on shaky ground," warned David Mozersky, ICG's analyst for Sudan, in the report.
"The unstable partnership between a strong but unwilling NCP and a weak but committed SPLM is making the implementation process highly volatile," Mzersky said.
Part of the January 9 comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) granted southern Sudan six years of self rule after which it will vote in a referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede in addition to exempting it from Sharia law.
The group said the ruling party was exploiting SPLM's weakness and gaps in the CPA to "delay and frustrate the process".
It added that the death of Sudan's former vice-president and SPLM leader John Garang last year had weakened the party and that the NCP "has abandoned its strategy for a political partnership with the SPLM".
The report also blamed the international community for failing to ensure that the peace pact was implemented.
"The international community has an enormous physical presence in Sudan today... but it has failed to live up to its envisioned role as a guarantor and seems unwilling to seriously engage the parties politically," the group said.
The war in the south erupted in 1983 when the rebels, led by Garang, rose up against Khartoum to end Arab and Muslim domination and marginalisation of the black, animist and Christian south, claiming at least 1.5 million lives and displacing more than four million.