Violence 'unlikely to derail Nigeria polls'

2011-03-29 15:06

Abuja - Violence during Nigeria's elections which begin this week is a concern but is unlikely to disrupt the overall process, the head of the Commonwealth election observer mission said on Monday.

Africa's most populous nation holds a parliamentary vote on Saturday, presidential elections on April 09 and governorship elections in its 36 states a week later. There has already been localised unrest ahead of what are set to be fierce contests.

Diplomats say there appears to have been less thuggery by gangs than in the run-up to the last elections in 2007, which were marred by ballot-stuffing and fraud, although there has been a rise in targeted political killings and bomb attacks.

"In the wake of the flawed 2007 elections it is vital that Nigeria writes a new electoral chapter, restoring public confidence in the country's democratic institutions and processes," said Festus Mogae, former Botswana President and head of the Commonwealth observer mission.

"I am worried about violence this time around but not to such an extent that it will affect the overall elections," he told a news conference in the capital Abuja.

Incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian, is seen as the front runner in the presidential race but faces tough competition in parts of the Muslim north from ex-military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, whose supporters hope he can force a run-off.

Analysts had been concerned that the presidential election would become polarised around rivalry between the mostly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south, but campaigning has largely been free of inflammatory rhetoric.

But local elections could prove a greater security threat.

Spate of killings

There has been a spate of killings in the remote northeast, blamed on a radical Islamist sect but widely believed to be politically motivated, unrest in the oil-producing Niger Delta, and a bomb attack on a rally in Suleja near the capital Abuja.

More than 200 people have died in sectarian clashes since late December around Jos in the Middle Belt, which lies between the Muslim north and largely Christian south.

Although not all of violence is directly election-related, the tensions are rooted in rivalry over political and economic power and have been exacerbated in the run-up to the polls.

A series of election observation missions have arrived in Nigeria during the last month, including teams from the European Union, US-based National Democratic Institute and the Commonwealth, all expected to post staff around the country.

The EU will dispatch the largest observer force with around 140 people spread across all of Nigeria's 36 states, while the Commonwealth has a team of less than 20 strategically deployed.

Each commission is expected to produce a preliminary report after the presidential vote on April 9, followed by a more comprehensive analysis. None of the groups have the authority to change or correct any shortcomings in the election process.

These observers will only be able to scour a small number of more than 100 000 polling stations that will be strewn across Africa's mostly heavily populated nation, leaving most of the scrutiny up to election staff and local police.

- Reuters