Few options for MDC
2008-04-14 17:02
Special Report
A classical music presenter for the BBC has been arrested and is in custody in Zimbabwe.
Harare - Rebuffed by the courts and regional leaders, Zimbabwe's opposition has a shrinking range of options as it seeks to build pressure for the release of results from last month's presidential election.
The Movement for Democratic Change may have threatened a general strike on Tuesday and to boycott a possible run-off between its leader Morgan Tsvangirai and President Robert Mugabe but both tactics run the risk of playing into their rival's hands, say analysts.
Previous campaigns to force a general shutdown have largely flopped and street protests have been crushed while a decision not to participate in a run-off could end up simply handing victory on a plate to Mugabe.
As many in the MDC feared, the high court on Monday turned down its petition for an order to the Zimbabwe electoral commission (ZEC) to immediately announce the results of the March 29 poll, ordering the party to pay the costs.
It was the second such reverse for the opposition in as many days. Leaders of the 14-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) ending a summit on Sunday with a declaration only for the results to be announced "expeditiously" and urging all sides to accept the outcome.
'Accept defeat'
The MDC had called on the SADC to issue a firm declaration urging Mugabe to "accept defeat" and to tell him his time was up.
It has released its own figures claiming Tsvangirai won more than 50% in the March 29 poll, pushing its man over the threshold needed to avoid a second round.
But Eldred Masunungure, a political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, said the opposition was in a bind as a boycott of the second round would leave the electoral commission no option but to declare Mugabe the winner.
"The boycott will throw the whole electoral exercise into disarray. If Tsvangirai decides not to participate in the run-off, it will leave Mugabe as the sole runner in the race," said Masunungure.
Lovemore Madhuku, a Zimbabwean constitutional expert, said the law was clear about the consequences if Tsvangirai does not contest any run-off.
"The law says those with highest and the second highest votes in the first round go to a run-off and if one of them withdraws, the other one is automatically declared winner," Madhuku told AFP.
Empty threats
Zimbabwe's Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa has challenged the MDC to formally withdraw from a potential run-off, accusing them of empty threats.
In a letter to the electoral commission, Chinamasa said the boycott threat was "because they know that they will lose heavily and as a face-saving gesture they are trying to avoid a run-off".
The MDC issued a call last week for a general strike on Tuesday if results were still unannounced and has made thinly-veiled threats that the people "will make a statement" in the continued vacuum.
However, with unemployment running at over 80% and few of those in work willing to forego a day without pay as they struggle to make ends meet, the most recent general strike calls have gone largely unheeded.
Mugabe 'provoking' MDC
The MDC has so far resisted direct calls for its supporters to take to the streets, well aware that Mugabe still controls the security apparatus.
"The MDC is in a very difficult position," said Dirk Kotze, an analyst at Unisa.
Tsvangirai's courting of regional leaders and the resort to legal action underlined how little room for manoeuvre they have and their awareness of the dangers of taking to the streets, he added.
"Mugabe wants to provoke the MDC to violence, to violent demonstrations - that would give him a reason to declare the state of emergency and set the elections aside."
- AFP