Zim: A long way to go
2009-07-07 13:34
Judy Smith, an expert on Zimbabwe issues, working for the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South African.
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Riot police in Zimbabwe have disrupted a Valentine's Day peace march, scattering women demonstrators.
A dusty road leads to the village of Wedza, where veterans of Zimbabwe's liberation war eke out a meagre living on their farm cooperative, which after a promising start now brings only despair.
Cape Town - The situation in Zimbabwe has become of global interest as the country continues to face relentless problems under its coalition government. Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai recently embarked on a string of international visits to try and re-engage with the West - and to seek financial aid.
Although these visits have largely been deemed a success, the results were not entirely what had been hoped for.
Zimbabweans in London heckled Tsvangirai - with some saying that the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) founder was slowly losing its grip.
Followers of President Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party were left furious after Tsvangirai failed to have the economic sanctions against the country lifted.
The reservations Western countries had in committing financial aid to Zimbabwe was seen as yet another slight.
News24's Betha Madhomu spoke to Judy Smith, from SA's Institute for Security Studies (ISS), who is regarded as an expert on Zimbabwe.
News24: Judy, what would be your overall comment on Morgan Tsvangirai's international trip? Would you say it was a success?
Smith: I would say in general that his trip was set to garner support to develop Zimbabwe. So yes, he went and was received by the US and the European community for the first time in several years. It that sense, his trip was indeed a success. But returns could have been much better. He only managed to bring back about $200m, which is far less than what the country needs to rebuild its shattered economy. So the trip was a moderate success, I would say.
News24: What do you think were the major reasons behind the Western aid boycott?
Smith: Well, the international and donor community want to be certain of the sustainability of developments in Zimbabwe before they can really commit themselves. There are deadlocks, particularly pertaining to the issue of the Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono and of course the Attorney General Johannes Tomana. And as long as these and other sticking points remain unresolved, it would be very difficult, as the West has indicated, for the country to acquire the billions it requires for the resuscitation of the economy.
News24: President Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF party could have expected the trip to be an avenue to have the sanctions against the country lifted but things didn't go as anticipated. What could be your comment on this?
Smith: Ah…I think the lifting of sanctions was not really Morgan Tsvangirai's goal in this trip. The issue of sanctions is something that President Mugabe always speaks about because, in his view, it is one of the major causes of the country's current crisis. But the question is why should the international community consider lifting targeted sanctions against certain political figures, for example, when the person who has played a major role in ruining the country is still clinging to power? Why should the West have any faith if there has been little sign of change?
News24: The PM was heckled by Zimbabweans in the UK as he tried to woo them to come back home and help rebuild the nation. Do you think Tsvangirai still stands a chance with those living in the Diaspora? Is he not slowly losing the grassroots support?
Smith: A lot of people in the Diaspora have been disappointed by Morgan Tsvangirai now working together with his former archrival. In their view, little has changed since the formation of the government of national unity. They feel Tsvangirai is no longer as committed as he used to be in upholding his party's resolutions, i.e. standing firm against Mugabe. Some feel he should be more assertive in his approach to dealing with Mugabe. This puts Tsvangirai in a difficult position, for, on the one hand, he is obliged to do his level best to collaborate with Zanu-PF designing policy, and he can no longer be overly critical of a government of which he has now become a part. On the other hand, continued violations of the Global Political Agreement by Zanu-PF stalwarts cannot be ignored, lest he wants to risk being downgraded to a junior partner in the GNU.
News24: One of the reasons that led to the PM being booed was obviously the way he defended President Mugabe and his comments on the GNU moving on the right track. Would you say that Tsvangirai deliberately turned a blind eye to the crisis in Zimbabwe for the sake of securing financial aid?
Smith: One has to consider the context in which Tsvangirai addressed the crowd. As a Prime Minister of the country, he obviously has to portray a positive attitude in dealing with some of these issues. It's unfortunate that the PM during his tour was caught in a dilemma. He had to defend the power-sharing deal and paint a good picture about him working with his former rival in the GNU. Yet at the same time, he was still expected to speak like an opposition leader. But this was not the platform, neither was it the right forum for him to do so. If he had been more vocal and attacked the GNU or his former rivals, then questions were going to be raised as to how unified the unity government is. Surely, it was more important that he portrayed himself as a statesman, and not as an opposition leader.
News24: But in general, what can you say about the inclusive government in Zimbabwe? Do you think it will bear fruits as anticipated by many?
Smith: Well, there seems to be some improvement. There is now food on the shelves in the supermarkets, although most people don’t have the hard currency to pay for it. They have also recently, managed to acquire close to a billion dollars in credit lines from China. That's a huge support. However, it's going to take a while before things can normalise. But I would also say that it's still too early to judge the GNU on its successes, because so many issues still haven't been resolved. Also, the fact that some MDC parliamentarians might lose their seats because they are facing criminal charges would definitely have an impact on the progress of the new government.
News24: So does it mean the Zimbabwe GNU is not workable and is destined for doom?
Smith: The GNU has to work. There doesn't seem to be any viable alternative with regards to the Zimbabwe situation. Well, there are hardliners trying to derail the process but the truth is there isn't much that can be done in Zimbabwe now apart from making the GNU work.
News24: But there is Simba Makoni who is making a comeback with his Mavambo party. Don't you think he is bound to bring some exciting change in the Zimbabwe politics?
Smith: Well, we can't say now whether he is a real alternative. It's difficult to say now whether he would really stand in as a challenge to both MDC and Zanu-PF.
News24: What exactly should be the PM's role in a government of national unity?
Smith: According to the power-sharing agreement, the president chairs the cabinet whilst the PM chairs the commission of ministers. The idea is that, he (PM) performs the executive functions like garnering support for the GNU, getting financial support and so on.
News24: And do you think the PM is executing his duties fully?
Smith: The task in Zimbabwe is a mammoth one. I would say that the 100-day plan was a little too ambitious and people are bound to be disappointed when they fail to achieve all the goals set. Another problem is that, while the goals were stipulated, there is no clear strategy on how all those goals are going to be achieved. This certainly puts a lot of pressure on the PM.
New24: Are there any signs of an election being held in Zimbabwe any time soon in light of the problems already faced with the ongoing constitutional process?
Smith: There is a timeframe within which the elections should be held and from the way things are happening, it looks like it will take more than 18 months before the country can go to the polls.
News24: Thank you Judy for your time.
- News24