EFF votes may damage ANC on a provincial level

2014-02-11 00:00

MEMBERS of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) may get enough votes to be elected as speakers, members of provincial governments and even premiers in some provinces after the elections.

This is the opinion of political analysts who said the increase in the number of voters who will divide their vote between parties means the ANC may have to get into bed with the EFF.

The research company Ipsos said more voters will make their crosses for one party at national level and another party on a provincial level.

The survey shows if there is a high voter turn-out on election day, the ANC will only win 48% of the votes at provincial level.

Ipsos questioned 3 564 respondents across SA between October and November last year in personal interviews, asking them whom they would vote for if the elections were to happen the next day.

Dr Piet Croucamp, political analyst at the University of Johannesburg, said voters were more informed than ever before and it was mainly ANC voters who will divide their vote. “This means voters can now distinguish between the national government and the provincial government,” he said.

Although Croucamp does not foresee a divided vote having a meaningful impact on the election, he said its effect will be noticed in Gauteng and the North West.

Voters who vote for the ANC at national level, will rather vote for the EFF than the DA, said Croucamp.

“If the EFF gets between 10% and 15% [of the votes] in Gauteng, it will take away a large chunk of support from the ANC.

“If the ANC still wants to keep this province, they will have to enter a coalition with the EFF.” The EFF will also rather get into bed with the ANC than with the DA, Croucamp said.

“If the EFF agrees to form a coalition, there will be certain demands on the ANC, like making EFF members members of the executive council.”

Political analyst Aubrey Matshiqi said a divided vote could even occur in KwaZulu-Natal, where the voters have traditionally given overwhelming support to the ANC.

“There was an expectation that Jacob Zuma would look after them, because he also hails from KwaZulu-Natal. This did not happen and people are very disillusioned,” Matshiqi said.

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