05/07/2008 17:31 - (SA)
Minfield begs caution
Khathu Mamaila
IMAGINE this. Your toddler accidentally locks himself inside the car. He opens the glove compartment and removes a loaded revolver.
You can see him from outside playing with it.
He makes all sorts of gestures. Sometimes he points the lethal weapon at you, sometimes at his head.
You cannot walk away, he is your son. You are afraid that if you shout at him he might panic. And panic is the last thing you want.
The chances of determining the outcome of his actions are limited. But one thing is clear, you have a king-size problem.
Sadly, you don’t have the luxury of walking away from the explosive mess.
Whatever you do, you have to adopt the same strategy employed by porcupines when they make love – take extreme care.
This anecdote illustrates the conundrum President Thabo Mbeki faces with his Zimbabwean counterpart, Robert Mugabe.
There have been calls for Mbeki to take tougher action against Mugabe.
Some have urged him to drop his diplomatic approach.
They want him to openly condemn Mugabe.
The hawks are more vociferous. Impose sanctions. Isolate Mugabe. Invade and effect regime change they demand.
But Mbeki is powerless. He knows that whatever the solution, Mugabe remains key.
Unlike Britain and the US, South Africa shares a border with Zimbabwe.
If war breaks out in that country it might spill over into South Africa.
Men in uniform know it is easy to start a war, but almost impossible to end it.
Despite peace deals in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, peace continues to elude those countries.
Mbeki knows this. His objective is to walk the minefield that is Zimbabwe without detonating the mines.
The primary objective is to avoid war. And because of this Mbeki cannot afford to isolate Mugabe.
Mugabe holds all the aces.
Anybody who is keen on seeing the resolution of the crisis will be extremely frustrated with Mbeki. It is understandable.
After all South Africa has blocked efforts to isolate the Mugabe regime.
The superficial assessment of the facts lead to one inescapable conclusion – Mbeki supports Mugabe. Period.
But what viable options are really available?
Beyond the grandstanding and cheap point-scoring, what can he really do?
Beyond the rhetoric “take a tougher stance”, what can Mbeki practically do?
The objectives are obvious. He wants to avoid an outbreak of war and help Zimbabweans resolve their political impasse.
There are several obstacles. Mugabe and his security chiefs fear that once they relinquish power they might face criminal charges for their involvement in the Matabeleland massacres in the early 1980s.
Though the mediators might offer them amnesty, they know Liberia’s Charles Taylor was offered the same deal but is being tried for gross human rights violations.
There is a growing clamour for a negotiated transitional government of national unity that will include the opposition Movement for Democratic Change.
It sounds attractive but the Movement for Democratic Change, which got a fair share of the votes in the March election, believes this might undermine democracy.
The party cites Kenya. It argues that parties that lose elections should not be rewarded for using force to undermine the will of the people.
As it stands, Zanu-PF and the Movement for Democratic Change leaders are bankrupt of adjectives to insult each other with.
Ordinary Zimbabweans suffer as leaders from both sides live large on sponsorships from their Eastern and Western backers.
Mbeki is still trying to figure out how to influence Mugabe – without making him panic.
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