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As ANC members in seven provinces begin the process to elect new leaders, Mbeki soloists could find themselves without their political voices - a repeat of what happened in Polokwane, write CAIPHUS KGOSANA AND MOFFET MOFOKENG.

THE ANC conference in Polokwane was a watershed event where the general direction of the party and its leadership took a whole new turn.

Now, as provinces get ready to put new leaders in place, the spoils of Polokwane look set to spill over into six of the party’s seven elective conferences.

Indications are that prominent supporters of President Thabo Mbeki will find it very difficult to hold on to leadership positions as proponents of ANC president Jacob Zuma flex their muscles.

The first casualties are set to be provincial premiers, who hold dual positions as chairpersons of the ANC in their respective provinces.

In Limpopo the ANC Youth League (ANCYL) is calling for the removal of Premier Sello Moloto as chairperson.

In KwaZulu-Natal, Premier S’bu Ndebele – a lone Mbeki voice in a sea of Zuma choristers – has indicated he will not be available for another term as ANC chair, while Mpumalanga Premier Thabang Makwetla looks set to lose his position to deputy chairperson David Mabuza.

Gauteng and the Eastern Cape already have leadership structures in place.

Escape clause

In the Free State, the Zuma tsunami claimed its first victim shortly after Polokwane when the provincial secretary, Charlotte Lobe, a well-known Mbeki supporter, opted to jump ship before the July conference.

Lobe told City Press she was taking heed of Rule 12.8 of the ANC constitution, which prohibits national executive committee (NEC) members from occupying provincial leadership positions. But all indications are that Lobe would have faced an embarrassing defeat had she decided to wait for ANC branches in the Free State to make a decision.

A party source says deputy provincial secretary Sibongile Besane – who is now acting secretary – would have challenged Lobe for the position and Lobe would have lost.

On the other hand, provincial chair Ace Magashule is making a strong case for serving another term as chairperson.

While Rule 12.8 applies to Magashule too, it incorporates an escape clause which allows the province to make representations to the NEC if they want to keep a preferred leader simultaneously.

The source says the province feels Magashule has done a fantastic job, especially on the eve of the ANC conference as the province overwhelmingly supported Zuma.

But his critics, who describe Magashule as the “strongman of Free State politics”, accuse him of “Zanufying” the ANC in the province.

“The way he does it is by disqualifying branches he knows will not go for him,” another source says.

Consolidating Zuma’s hold

In KwaZulu-Natal, party insiders say it was not a mistake that provincial deputy chair and Zuma ally Dr Zweli Mkhize’s name never featured in the new national working committee (NWC).

They say this was deliberate, in anticipation of freeing him up for the role of ANC KwaZulu-Natal chairperson.

To consolidate Zuma’s hold on KwaZulu-Natal, the provincial ANCYL has touted the organisation’s new graduate, Sihle Zikalala, as secretary and Siyabonga Cwele, the chairperson of Parliament’s joint standing committee on intelligence, as his deputy.

Anti-Moloto sentiment

This week Moloto – who still has aspirations of holding onto the position of Limpopo chairperson – apologised to his chief detractor, ANCYL president Julius Malema, for insulting him during a provincial deployment committee meeting in October.

The move is seen as Moloto’s attempt to make amends with the Zuma camp in the province ahead of the crucial conference.

But this attempt seems to have failed as the provincial youth league says while it accepts the apology it has lost confidence in Moloto.

The ANCYL’s conviction is that “his leadership is tantamount to a navigator that has completely lost signal in the middle of the journey”.

Limpopo local government and housing MEC Maite Nkoana-Mashabane tried to take advantage of the anti-Moloto sentiment by playing the gender card in an attempt to bag the top post.

Her office allegedly penned a document called “Limpopo must avoid 20 years of male leadership” to highlight the fact that the province hasn’t had a female provincial chair or premier since the dawn of democracy. The plan boomeranged and the document was withdrawn quickly.

A provincial executive committee (PEC) member says: “They crafted a plan to launch her as a candidate for chair and premier. It received negative feedback and they had to withdraw it.”

Although her office denies ownership of the document, Nkoana-Mashabane recently told a radio station that it would be up to the ANC branches whether they wanted her or not. Uniting Western Cape In the Western Cape – a highly contested battleground between Zuma and Mbeki supporters – the axe hangs over the head of provincial chairperson James Ngculu.

A well-placed source says that as branches begin holding their general meetings where leadership nominations will take place, the feeling was Ngculu should make way for provincial secretary and Zuma firebrand Mcebisi Skwatsha.

“There is a strong view that Ngculu has not enabled us to move forward as far as our goal of uniting the province is concerned,” says the source.

Ngculu aligned himself with Premier Ebrahim Rasool just days before Polokwane in their support of Mbeki.

It is understood that Skwatsha has made serious headway and will emerge strongly once branches pronounce on leadership. ‘Humiliated like Mbeki’ Seven lists are doing the rounds in the North West, which begins its provincial conference today. Premier Edna Molewa has her list and ANC secretary Supra Mahumapelo has his list, while the likes of former ambassador to the Great Lakes region, Jomo Khasu, has emerged on alternative lists.

A member of the Umkhonto weSizwe Military Veterans’ Association (MKMVA) in the province says they want Molewa out.

He says the call is based on events at Polokwane where Molewa failed to second the nomination of Thandi Modise, who was up for the position of deputy secretary-general.

“This thing will haunt her for life. Our own advice – as the MKMVA – is that she must not stand.

“She will be humiliated like Mbeki,” he says.

“She is not popular on the ground anymore.”

But the dynamics are also complicated by the ANCYL supporting Mahumapelo’s bid to retain his post, while the MKMVA wants Klerksdorp mayor China Dodovu to oppose him. Post-Polokwane vengeance ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe disagrees that some sort of post-Polokwane vengeance is playing out in the provinces.

He says indications are that many of the people who shared similar views before Polokwane are now challenging each other for positions, and warns against generalising these contests as Mbeki supporters versus Zuma’s.

“If comrades discuss leadership they should not be limited by the view that if we discuss a certain comrade then we would be seen to be removing an Mbeki person,” he says.

Mantashe’s assessment could ring true in Northern Cape, where the dynamics are playing out in quite a surprising manner.

There is a growing chorus for the removal of provincial chairperson John Block and for his replacement by provincial secretary Neville Mompati.

Block aligned himself with the Zuma grouping ahead of Polokwane, while Mompati was considered to be a strong backer of President Mbeki’s third-term bid.

Interestingly, the SA Communist Party in the province, a vocal supporter of Zuma, leads the chorus for the removal of Block, whom they accuse of riding on the Zuma bandwagon just prior to Polokwane in order to protect his own interests.

Block is no stranger to controversy. He was removed as Northern Cape public works MEC for using taxpayers’ money to attend a jazz festival in Cape Town.

There are allegations that he uses his position to score lucrative tenders for companies associated with him and his cronies.

SACP central committee member Chris Matlhaku says Block’s faction had opportunistically fashioned itself into a pro-Zuma bloc on the eve of Polokwane.

Matlhaku says it is unfortunate that Mompati had been labelled a Mbeki person when he had actually sought to form a counter-grouping against Block’s faction.

“John must not be re-elected as chairperson. We need to rethink the dynamics of the province,” Matlhaku says.

“Maybe this is the time to elect a leadership that is unconnected to all these things that are going on.”

Matlhaku says his view, which is not that of the party, is that Premier Dipuo Peters should be elected provincial chairperson owing to her vast experience in the ANC and in government.

“Nobody comes close to Dipuo’s political experience in the conjecture in the Northern Cape. She is a serving member of the ANC Women’s League NEC and has loads of experience.”

He says Block’s faction has shown political immaturity by excluding Peters from important meetings of party structures such as the PEC, the provincial working committee and the officials’ meeting.

Peters does not serve in any of the provincial leadership structures of the ANC.

“It creates a dichotomy where she has to serve her mandate as premier away from the party mandate,” Matlhaku says. Unity versus uniformity In Mpumalanga, the one school of thought is for deputy ANC chair Mabuza to take over the position of chairperson, while an opposing group wants Mbombela municipality mayor Lassy Chiwayo to stand as chair.

Makwetla does not feature on any of the lists and looks set to pay a heavy price for his allegiance to Mbeki.

Mantashe says while the ANC has been preaching for unity after Polokwane, unity should not be confused with uniformity and provinces should be allowed to engage in robust debates about leadership.

For those seen as loyal to Mbeki, however, the winds of change are set to blow harder than they did in Polokwane.

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