26/04/2003 19:08 - (SA)
Politics this week:
Obasanjo credibility hangs in balance
Jimmy Seepe
ARE THE New Partnership for Africa's Development (Nepad) and the legitimacy of the African Union poised on the brink after this week's elections in Nigeria?
This is the question uppermost in our minds as we try to make sense of the Nigerian polls, in which Olusegun Obasanjo won a second term of office.
The election result, already endorsed by the AU and other political structures on the continent, has cast doubt on the capacity of Nigeria to conduct free and fair elections. With opposition parties crying foul, there is concern that Nigeria's standing on the continent as a proponent of democracy and good governance is seriously in doubt.
The outcome of the elections, which were expected to serve as a hallmark of African democracy, appears to have sullied the credibility of a prime mover of Nepad and the AU. Obasanjo's standing as one of the leaders spearheading Nepad has been compromised.
Official results of a series of elections gave Obasanjo and his ruling Peoples Democratic Party a firm grip over the presidency, state governorships as well as parliament. Obasanjo has ignored criticism and suggested that the polls had boosted Nigeria's democratic credentials.
Protests by opposition parties, unless handled properly by the Nigerian electoral system and the courts, could cast a shadow over Obasanjo's future.
But the opposition's reaction begs another question regarding African democracy - can any African state hold a successful election without being bedevilled by claims of vote-rigging? Why is it that opposition parties on the continent cry foul after being beaten at the polls?
Although it might be easy to dismiss the protest by the opposition, led by former military ruler Mohammed Buhari, as the cry of a poor loser, there are clear indications from observers that certain irregularities were committed.
The ease with which AU leaders accepted the election outcome and their rapid declaration of support for Obasanjo brings to mind their response to the Zimbwabwe elections, where massive irregularities were evident.
At the time, there was compelling evidence that the Movement for Democratic Change was justified in its suspicions regarding the results. Then as now, it was the same bodies which moved quickly to declare that the Nigerian elections were free and fair.
With the G8 summit coming up in two months' time, when President Thabo Mbeki and Obasanjo are once again likely to sell Nepad and try to attract investment to the continent, it is imperative that claims of irregularities are properly investigated to satisfy the opposition and the people of Nigeria.
The AU needs to support calls for a thorough investigation to probe claims of vote-rigging and to satisfy itself that those charges are either true or false.
There is cause for concern that Nigeria's shoddy elections could prove a setback for democracy as well as foreign investment in Africa.
Although African leaders might be quick to dismiss international observers' reports, such as those compiled by the EU team, it is hoped that this is not yet another occasion for the continent leaders to rally behind one another as they did with Zimbabwe.
It will be interesting to see what the leaders say about the EU assessment, which suggested that Nigeria's elections have been tarnished by irregularities and fraud. The observers also claimed that "minimum standards for democratic elections had not been met in a number of states".
Another observer team from the National Democratic Institute, based in Washington, suggested that the elections had been marred by "ballot-stuffing, rigging, voter intimidation, violence and fraud".
Although the 22-strong Commonwealth team gave the elections a "pass mark", it suggested that in certain states "proper electoral processes appear to have broken down, and there was intimidation".
The international community is already concerned that Africa has protected Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe following an outcry from G8 countries over his ruthless treatment of political opponents and white commercial farmers as well as a flawed presidential election in 2002. How Africa deals with the latest election crisis might add to scepticism in the West.
It is therefore up to Obasanjo, having presided over the Commonwealth troika that dealt with overseeing the return of the rule of law in Zimbabwe, to resolve questions regarding electoral fraud in an amicable manner and within constitutional structures.
One expects Obasanjo to assume his second term with a clean slate. While one is not assuming that he rigged the elections, Obasanjo needs to do more to convince not only Nigerians but the rest of the continent that he was elected fairly.
How Obasanjo moves forward and deals with this crisis will have immense implications for the continent. There is no doubt that if Nigeria cannot get it right, then electoral standards will plunge.
Failure to deal with the election protest could see mavericks within the military join forces with disgruntled groups to launch a military coup, claiming the government in power is illegitimate. The challenge for Nigeria is to ensure that the military remains impartial, and in the barracks.
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