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03/05/2008 14:58  - (SA)  
If it must be, Zim run-off should show real change
    

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ZIMBABWE becomes more intractable each day. Delayed presidential results have now become known and contrary to the claim by Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leaders, there is no outright winner – at least according to the electoral commission.

In terms of Zimbabwean law there must now be a run-off between Morgan Tsvangirai and Robert Mugabe. The MDC says the results were cooked to firstly try for a Zanu-PF victory and when that could not be done, government settled for a run- off option.

The MDC further asserts that the run-off is preferable to Mugabe because he hopes to torture and intimidate people into voting for him.

The MDC may well be right that the results have been massaged. What can they do about it? They cannot refuse to take part in a run-off because that would be giving Mugabe the presidency on a platter and reversing the gains that have seen him lose parliamentary dominance.

The results show the unmistakable desire of the majority of Zimbabweans for change. The run-off, if done, can only produce an MDC victory, given of course that Simba Makoni, who garnered 8% of the votes, throws his weight behind the movement for change. The other MDC, which supported Makoni, has already said it will back Tsvangirai.

So, should a run-off be called, the MDC has to participate, as long as the regional SADC leadership make good their promise of a free and fair terrain to campaign, access to media and the presence of enough observers for the entire period to ensure adherence to principles of democracy in the campaign.

This would be the preferred approach, as it would mean that whoever eventually rules Zimbabwe would be doing so legally and legitimately.

But that is not the only way. Zanu-PF and the MDC may well decide that it is unneccesary to subject Zimbabweans to another campaign and election, given prevailing conditions.

They may decide, like Kenya, to agree on a government of national unity (GNU), which has to be led by the man with the greater number of votes. Such a scenario, unpalatable as it might be because it flouts the rules of the game, would mean Zimbabwe starts the process of reconciliation earlier. There is just too much polarisation in Zimbabwe following the reign of terror by Mugabe and his security forces.

Movement forward will therefore need cool heads and statesmanship from both leaders, whether for the run-off or the GNU option. The latter option would need parliamentary endorsement anyway.

The non-negotiable in this scenario has to be that Mugabe himself must go. The result of a run-off or an arrangement must palpably show change, and nothing would demonstrate that more than Mugabe heading home and giving new people a chance to fix his mess.

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