Can Julius Malema really bounce back?

2013-02-04 08:26

Chris Moerdyk

On the face of it Julius Malema is well and truly up the creek without a paddle. The ANC has packed him off into the wilderness, Sars is on his back and heaven knows how many others are digging into his past looking for as much dirt as they can find.

Many of his former buddies have turned their backs on him and to all intents and purposes one would imagine that he has reached the end of the road. Finished. Kaput.

The thing is though, while he might no longer be part of the most powerful political entity in the country or any other political entity for that matter; while he might running out of money and friends, Julius Malema still has something that no-one can take away from him.

Quite simply, that is the tacit support of anyone in this country who is unemployed, uneducated and who is facing a hopeless future.

And there are millions if those.

In the last elections Julius Malema appealed directly to the young and unemployed of this country and entirely on his own he secured the single biggest block of votes for the ANC.  In fact, Malema pulled in 18% of the total vote cast.

Messages hit home

Now, with the ANC still being seen by the poor and unemployed, the homeless and hopeless as not delivering the goods and being completely out of touch with reality by just sanctioning Eskom price hikes and e-tolling without realising the impact on the consumer, one has to wonder just how much support Malema is silently building?

Let's face it, much as the wealthy, the middle-class, the gainfully employed youth and most white people, were shocked at his fiery rhetoric and inflammatory speeches, one cannot deny that his messages hit home in no uncertain terms among those he was targeting. 

By everything that is logical, it has to be assumed that Malema, now having been made something of a martyr by the ANC and Sars, still has a lot of sympathy among the growing number of unemployed, hopeless voters in this country.

The only question one has to ask is whether he is going to do something about it or just fade into the background and become a subsistence farmer in Limpopo. Or end up in jail for something or other.

Would it really be worthwhile him starting a new political party? After all, if he could manage to persuade 18 per cent of the voting population to support him in the last elections, even if he got half that number he would effectively become a party far bigger than Cope and would probably give the DA a run for its money in time.

Simple logic

And the more the ANC remains in denial about the level of hopelessness in this country, the more of their followers would start following Malema.

On the other hand, one has to ask whether the reason he is not starting up his own show, is because he genuinely believes that there is still a home for him in the ANC.

Either way, simple logic dictates that Malema might well be down but he's far from out. He still has a lot of followers and his future will depend on now he uses that single massive asset that no-one can actually take away from him.

In my opinion, in spite of his difficulties right now, it would be a mistake to write off Julius Malema.

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