G-Bissau: Run-off sparks fear

2009-07-07 15:12

Dakar - Relief that Guinea-Bissau managed a peaceful vote to replace its slain leader is being quickly replaced by fears of a turbulent run-off between two candidates unlikely to offer the nation a desperately-needed fresh start.

Having won the first round, Malam Bacia Sanha, candidate for the ruling PAIGC party, will go into the July 26 run off as the strong favourite to beat second-placed Kumba Yala, who analysts say will struggle to better his first round score of 30%.

The June 28 first round was the latest test for the former Portuguese colony, which has had six elected or interim presidents during the last decade and which saw its president and army chief killed in tit-for-tat killings earlier this year.

The removal of two figures who had long-dominated Bissau's politics gave rise to some optimism that a fresh start might be possible. But both second round candidates have previously served as president of the West African nation.

Democratic process

"Until the democratic process is allowed to run its full course, we can't talk about a fresh start," said Mohamed Jalloh, an analyst at the International Crisis Group think-tank.

And concern has already shifted to if and how Yala, a fiery former president who enjoys plenty of support from within the army but few outisde his Balante tribe, will react after the vote, which will be the tiny nation's seventh since 2000.

"It is almost impossible for (Yala) to go beyond his traditional constituency of 30-35% to win the vote. The risk is Kumba Yala: his readiness to contest results and the fact he has the rank-and-file of the military," Jalloh added.

Yala won just under 30% of the votes in the first round of voting compared to Sanha's score just under 40%. Yala's camp initially claimed that he had won in the first round, then complained of fraud before accepting a run-off.

Least of two evils

While Yala can count on the unwavering support of the Balante tribe, which make up around 30% of the country's 1.5 million people, his volatility and disastrous previous spell in power between 2000 and 2003 mean he is unlikely to garner votes from other first round candidates.

"The two candidates are from the two parties that brought confusion and terror to Guinea-Bissau but I prefer Malam Bacai Sanha as he is the least of two evils," said Paulo Mendoca, who stood as an independent candidate in the first round.

Yala's short time in power came after a civil war and was curtailed by a coup. But it still saw four prime ministers, over 80 ministers and the IMF and World Bank stopped lending, leaving a deep scar on Bissau's cluttered political landscape.

"Malam Bacai is not a healthy man but Kumba Yala as president again is madness," said one diplomat, referring to persistent rumours that Sanha has heart problems.

Threat of contested results

The current crisis in Guinea Bissau is in part a legacy of the military's repeated meddling in politics during the years after the army fought a bitter independence war.

But it has been exacerbated more recently by the lucrative trans-Atlantic cocaine trade, which has seen senior military officers and politicians sucked into a web of Latin American gangs corrupting and operating alongside authorities in poor, dysfunctional countries in the region.

While there have not been any confirmed links between drugs and political killings, the United Nations, which has a mission but no peacekeepers in the country, has long warned drugs would lead to political instability.

"Guinea-Bissau is very fragile. If Yala contests the results, what will that lead to?" ICG's Jalloh said.

Although the military has declared its neutrality, many of its officers owe their ranks to promotions made during Yala's 2000-2003 spell in power and this year's political killings have underscored the military's readiness to act unilaterally.

"In short, Guinea-Bissau's problem is not democratically choosing its president but rather respecting his life or his mandate once he is elected," RADDHO, a West African human rights network, said in a statement on the poll.

- Reuters