Turnout key to Egypt polls

2005-09-02 10:32

Cairo - Millions of Egyptians will stay home on September 7, arguing that the president's re-election is a foregone conclusion.

With Mubarak expected to win a comfortable first-round victory, the most significant result in the country's first ever pluralist presidential election looks set to be the turnout figure.

Throughout his campaign, the four-term president has urged Egypt's 32 million voters to rush to polling stations. "Go the polls and vote for the candidate of your choice," he said in an interview published on Thursday.

Mubarak has ruled the country with an iron fist for 24 years and until now, Egyptians had only been able to say yes or no to a single candidate appointed by parliament.

Poor turnout expected

But many feel that little has changed and that Wednesday's vote is little more than another referendum or a ploy aimed at pleasing international pro-reform lobbies.

"This, an election? It's just a farce, and the result is already known," said prominent feminist Nawal al-Saadawi. "I will certainly not play this game."

Dhia Rashwan, a political analyst at the Al-Ahram Centre for Strategic Studies, predicts anything short of a 50% turnout would harm the election's credibility, adding that mass fraud would be required to reach that figure.

"The judges don't expect turnout to be in excess of 20% or 25%, yet the regime needs 50% to secure the legitimacy it needs," he said.

Boycotts

In addition to voter apathy, boycott calls by several leading opposition forces will also swell abstentionist ranks.

"We called on our supporters to boycott the vote in order to strip it of any legitimacy," said Hussein Abdel Razek, secretary general of the marxist Tagammu party.

Some have tied their decision to that of the judges' syndicate, which is tasked with monitoring the vote but has threatened to boycott it in protest at restrictions contained in the new electoral law.

The judges issued a report in July denouncing widespread fraud during the May 25 referendum on poll reform and suggesting that the actual turnout was significantly lower than the 53% figure announced by the government.

According to independent estimates, participation has never exceeded 10%.

"Turnout is key. I expect broader participation than ever before. A lot of people will vote and a lot of people with vote for Ayman Nur and Numan Gumaa," said Hani Enan, a leader of the Kefaya (Enough) opposition movement, in reference to Mubarak's two main challengers.

His group has officially called for a boycott of the vote, arguing that fraud in the May referendum had rendered the election illegal, but he said the movement was now hesitant to crush in the bud a fledgling popular momentum for democracy.

"If the turnout reaches 20% or 25%, it'll be a completely new situation for the regime, it'll be a lot to handle, a lot of votes to forge and they (Mubarak's people) will make lots of mistakes along the way," he explained.

- AFP