Zimbabwe Q&A
2008-04-04 12:08
Special Report
President Jacob Zuma has urged the Commonwealth to re-admit Zimbabwe to the group.
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe says he doesn't expect the US sanctions on his country to be lifted soon.
Cathryn Reece
Cape Town - The situation in Zimbabwe is tense as election results trickle out of the ZEC at a frustrating rate. The MDC has claimed victory in the Presidential race, already having won the Parliamentary election, but the ruling Zanu-PF government has slammed the opposition for making this premature claim, and there is no word yet on whether a run-off presidential election will need to take place.
Riot police have arrested foreign journalists without accreditation and raided MDC offices in the capital Harare.
To get a clearer sense of the situation, News24 spoke to Chris Maroleng from the Institute for Security Studies. As one of the leading experts on Zimbabwe, we asked him what is likely to happen in Zimbabwe in the days and weeks ahead.
Download the full audio of this interview in MP3 format by clicking here.
7.7MB 19m20s
In the last 24 hours we've seen the situation take a turn in Zimbabwe with riot police arresting journalists and raiding MDC offices. Was this expected? Can we expect more of this?
Well certainly one of the key things that has marked the Zimbabwean crisis has been the use of violence and suppression to address what is essentially political problems by Zanu-PF so in many ways it was expected however given the context of the way in which the parliamentary results were released and the relative freedom and space that was given to both journalists and the MDC, particularly in the immediate run up to the elections, it came as a bit of a surprise.
Analysts say there are three scenarios possible in the next few days:
1. Mugabe accepts defeat and hands over power peacefully
2. Mugabe and Zanu-PF insist on run-off presidential elections
3. Mugabe refuses to accept results and declares martial law
Which of these scenarios are the most likely or are there other possibilities?
What we've been hearing recently is that President Robert Mugabe has been engaging with the service chiefs of the armed forces and key elements within Zanu-PF; in fact as we speak today the Politburo of Zanu-PF are engaged in discussions with President Robert Mugabe and it's anticipated that a strategy will come out of this for President Robert Mugabe.
I think if President Robert Mugabe was anticipating a similar return in terms of the run-off he would be quite certain that he would suffer a resounding defeat at the polls to the Movement for Democratic Change and I think this weighs heavily on his mind which leads us to consider the first option of him conceding before running an election and this would be on the basis of him being able to negotiate the possibility of amnesty or immunity from prosecution.
At the same time there is another option available for President Robert Mugabe that could be emerging from what we're seeing now that indeed he begins clamping down on the opposition; narrowing democratic space; removing possible observers within the press to such a repression - as we have seen through the arrest of the journalists last night - and then continuing with this repression and running in a presidential run-off against Morgan Tsvangirai, hoping that this suppression and the clamp-down on the opposition would have created an unbalanced political environment which would assist him to win the presidential election.
Is that what you see as a likely outcome over the next few days?
I actually see the most likely outcome - based on a rational choice for Mugabe - as him conceding this presidential poll and not entering into a run-off.
These elections that we've seen - are they a testament to some form of democracy in Zimbabwe?
I think the actual elections are a testament to some of the successes of SADC's mediation role in Zimbabwe. In this regard President Thabo Mbeki was engaged with the MDC and Zanu-PF in negotiations, first of all, to create an enabling environment for elections to occur and to create a conducive environment also for dialogue to occur between the two main political parties to address the key issues relating to governance, the economy and democratic practice in Zimbabwe.
And I think what we saw emerging from this was the liberalisation of the political environment which created somewhat of an opening for the MDC at least to begin low levels of campaigns in the rural areas which in the past were no-go zones.
It also saw the MDC being able to create the strategy that has emerged post the elections which allowed the MDC to declare what they believed to have been the electoral outcome, based on the results from the polls that were placed outside all the polling stations, which was a provision of the electoral act, emerging from the SADC mediation.
I think this allowed them to create a strategy where they could pre-emptively release what they believed were the free or correct tally from the polls and place the burden of proof, somewhat stealing the initiative from Zanu-PF, on the ZEC to show that the results they had posted were incorrect.
So yes I think the SADC mediation has allowed for a slight opening of democratic space in Zimbabwe.
South African President Thabo Mbeki has been criticised for the way he has handled the Zimbabwe situation. Are you saying that we're seeing Mbeki's hand in what's happening in Zimbabwe now?
Absolutely, through the SADC. I think the criticism for South African President Thabo Mbeki is that his approach to Zimbabwe was very pragmatic but almost weak or lacking in principle, in the sense that he did not provide for a public expression in many instances, for human rights abuses, the decline in democracy and the limitations on the government's ability to focus on the human security needs of the people of Zimbabwe.
However when we look at it in a more holistic approach the argument from the government is that they have been engaged in a diplomacy which was influenced by the fact that many other key interlocutors that tried to engage Mugabe publicly on these issues were basically excluded from engagement with the Zimbabwean government and in many ways this exclusion has meant that they've played less of a crucial role in trying to influence events in Zimbabwe.
The South African government still remains the most influential interlocutor who is still engaged with the Zimbabwean government and let's remember that Mbeki's approach to Zimbabwe has been to try and internationalise the crisis in Zimbabwe arguing that the probnlems in Zimbabwe emanate essentially from bi-lateral fall out in relations between Great Britain and Zimbabwe.
As a result of Mugabe's attempts to re-address what he has described as issues relating to social justice, especially around the equitable redistribution of resources - meaning land reform - and that the western response to what Mugabe describes as the dispossession of the kids and kin of the land has been through sanctions.
So in essence president Mbeki has tried to avoid falling into this pan-African trap that Mugabe has set where instead of focussing on the domestic sources of the crisis he attempts to internationalise it. By so doing, those who criticise the failure of governance in Zimbabwe have been described as lackeys of the West or proxy's of Western interest.
If a handover of power takes place, could we call this a victory for South Africa's policy of "quiet diplomacy"?
I think the South African government's policy on quiet diplomacy has been that the people of Zimbabwe should be provided with an opportunity to find a home-grown solution to the crisis and if the people of Zimbabwe have spoken emphatically through the polls and have asked for a change in their government or indicated that they want a change in their government, I think the South African government can argue that their efforts through SADC have allowed for the expression of the will of the people through the polls and a democratic change in government.
So the South African government may very well claim that their policy approach has worked.
Let's turn to Morgan Tsvangirai. He's been in the public eye for years as the leader of the main opposition, but what would he be like as a president?
This is a crucial question which a lot of people have been asking and it derives from some of the challenges that has faced leadership in the MDC, especially emanating from Morgan Tsvangirai. In many ways there has been an argument that he has failed to provide strategic long term vision for the MDC; that, at a tactical level, his leadership style has been autocratic and this autocratic and command-style of leadership has resulted in a split in the opposition forces.
As we see now there are two considerations of the MDC and those in the Arthur Mutambara faction say they decided to split from the MDC because of Morgan Tsvangirai's increasingly autocratic tendencies and his inability to listen to dissenting voices within the party.
I think if we project it into the way in which the MDC, or the leader, will act in government, it may be of concern to a lot of people. However on the up side he has shown longevity and strong willpower when faced with a serious challenge from forces organised within the state, and the use of this repression against him.
So are we going from one bad situation to another?
Not necessarily, particularly if Morgan Tsvangirai can learn from experience that we've seen from other African countries that have gone through a similar transition. The task ahead for the MDC is very difficult and I doubt that a unilateral approach will be the best way to move Zimbabwe forward.
What are the MDC's main policies? What can we expect from an MDC government in Zimbabwe?
I think that in the immediate short-term, they will try to address the humanitarian crisis facing Zimbabwe and I think they will try to engage the international community to see what they can do to assist them in terms of food, aid and assistance. But my concern is that this does not create a dependency syndrome amongst the Zimbabwean population around international assistance and aid and that this is a stop gap measure.
And I think that the MDC will also begin to address serious macro-economic challenges that face Zimbabwe, for example: curbing inflation, looking at issues around Zimbabwe's currency and the manner in which it is pegged and around money supply, and more importantly around other key macro-economic considerations and creating a sound macro-economic situation that acts as an incentive for foreign investment into Zimbabwe.
More importantly what the Zimbabwean government would be trying to do post-Mugabe would be trying to attract back skills from its Diaspora in order for the Zimbabwean people to be those who rebuild and stabilise that country. The skills are there. Zimbabwe is well-endowed with human capital that can add impetus to change in Zimbabwe.
The farming and agriculture industry has suffered disastrous setbacks in the last 10 years. How would the MDC turn this around?
Well it's going to be very difficult. The MDC haven't really come out into the open and said what they will do in terms of the damage that has been done through the implementation of the land reform programme. Are they going to evict the newly resettled farmers and replace them with the previous owners who enjoyed a great degree of success in terms of production? Will the role of the MDC be to rationalise agricultural production and integrate this into the broader economy in order to benefit a larger number of people and I think it's going to be a difficult choice for the MDC.
Having said that I'm not sure that agriculture will really return in terms of its share of the GDP of Zimbabwe to what it was in its heyday. I thin that agricultural production will take less and less of a role and that those punters who see quick returns in investing in agriculture may be disappointed in the short term.
In the medium to long term there is a possibility that we will see a recovery of the agricultural sector in Zimbabwe.
Are we going to see a flood of expats returning to Zimbabwe in the next few months?
It's dependent on the policies that the MDC implement and the confident that these expats have in the ability of government under Morgan Tsvangirai to turn things around. I would argue certainly that if the initial indication is that they are doing well to stabilise the situation and that there are prospects for those returning - jobs and entrepreneurial opportunities being provided - I anticipate that we may see a small trickle to begin with. Maybe that might increase if the Zimbabwean government gets it right.
What are the chances of Mugabe being prosecuted for human rights violations should he lose the presidential race?
This is one of the key considerations that has led, in the past, to Mugabe and elements in Zanu-PF to act as spoilers when faced with the prospects of change. Certainly I would argue when we look at Zanu-PF and the way they have gone, it would mean that any government that wants to succeed after Zanu-PF would have to balance issues of impunity with issues of political pragmatism or political expediency.
A disproportionate amount of one or the other would result in disastrous consequences. I think there must be some form of accounting for those who were involved in the deeds of the past, but at the same time there needs to be the realisation that if these individuals are sacrificed at the altar of democracy, that it will result in them continuing to resist change in Zimbabwe.
So a sound balancing act where in many ways the MDC will consider providing immunities for certain misdeeds committed in the past I think would put them on a good path to changing sentiments among individuals who would like to maintain the status quo.
And when we talk of prosecution, I would say that the MDC must be very careful not to totally pursue these individuals for prosecution.
Despite what we've seen in the last 24 hours, are you optimistic for Zimbabwe's future?
I am optimistic because, not for the political forces and parties in Zimbabwe, but because of the people in Zimbabwe. I think they have spoken emphatically in saying that they want a change, in spite of the difficult environment that has made it hard for them to express their will at the polls for such a long time now.
And I think the spirit that the Zimbabwean people have shown today makes me optimistic that they have now said that they hold the destiny of their country in their hands, in spite of the lack of leadership and political will amongst their political leaders to change the situation in Zimbabwe
Chris Maroleng, from the Institute for Security Studies, thank you very much for talking to News24.
- News24