Ten things to watch in 2009
2009-01-12 08:06
Clem Sunter
Foxy leaders always keen a mental list of possible breaking futures as they enter the New Year. These are the big picture uncertainties that may have a direct impact on the fortunes of their organisations if they actually become breaking news.
Our list for 2009 is as follows:
1. False Dawns
Reading some articles published in American newspapers in 1930 leaves one with a weird feeling. Basically they said the bad times were over and one could look forward to the rest of the decade with optimism. How wrong they were! We are similarly going to have many false dawns before the real dawn arrives. Expect a lot of volatility in the stock market as a result.
2. Celebrity Extinction
Several famous brands and companies that have been around for a century or more have already disappeared from the scene. Like with nature, sudden shifts in the environment destroy the vulnerable species that cannot adapt to new circumstances. The list is set to expand so check out the solvency of all your famous customers - corporate and individual - because nobody is immune to the downturn.
3. Colony Collapse
Staying with extinction, you are going to hear a lot more about the disappearing honey bees in America and China. Maybe the cause is pesticides poisoning the bees or cell phone masts interfering with their radar system. Whatever the reason, Albert Einstein once said that mankind cannot survive for four years without the bees because they play such a crucial role in the ecological chain.
4. Bali Blues
Given the recession and the drop in the oil price, environmental issues have generally been downgraded in the public's mind. Hence, politicians will be less enthusiastic to impose tough measures to protect the environment. However, in terms of the climate change conference held in Bali in late 2007, the new rules of the game to curb carbon emmissions are expected to be published for discussion by the end of this year. They are supposed to come into effect after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. Unless an economic recovery is already in place, the response to the new rules may be underwhelming to say the lease.
5. Price Wars
We have already seen the first shots being fired between the major supermarket chains i.e. huge discounts being offered to retain customers. But manufactures will have to follow suit to clear the enormous amount of stock that is piling up in their backyards. Commodity prices always fall first along with property and shares, but manufactured goods and services cannot escape in a buyers' market. Ask for a better deal, particularly if you can flash the cash.
6. China meltdown
At the Central Party School in Beijing, which is the inner sanctum of the Chinese Communist Party, I remember one of the professors saying in April 2006 that an American recession was China's greatest uncertainty. It could reduce China's economic growth rate to a level where social unrest in China explodes and causes serious problems for the current leadership. Well, here we are with the Chinese authorities applying the American cure of pumping huge sums of money into the economy to keep it alive. The only difference is that if something does not work in America, the politicians get voted out. In China, they disappear.
7. WMD Terrorism
This breaking future has been on our list since we published a letter to Mr Bush in 2001 in which we said that it was his greatest uncertainty. Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists change the game of war forever because the principles of mutually assured destruction fall away. Up until now it has been a case of "if you nuke me, I'll nuke you, so let's be sensible and not nuke each other". In the new game "if you nuke me, I won't know where to find you" so you'll just go ahead and risk the consequences. People won't want to live in major cities and nations will become dispersed again.
8. The Homecoming Revolution
Suddenly local is lekker in South Africa. We could see a major reversal in the flow of skills in the event of a prolonged recession since our economy is unlikely to suffer as much as, say, the UK, America and Canada. We are the America of Africa in that we represent a little less than 5% of the continent's population and produces 30% of the continent's GDP. The Chinese describe Africa as their "continent of choice" because it is the richest content on Earth in terms of still-unwrapped mineral wealth. South Africa is well-placed to help Africa open up for business when the scramble for resources heats up again. And then there's the Soccer World Cup in 2010!
9. Goodbye, Mr Mugabe
The endgame for Mr Mugabe started with the results of the first round of the presidential election. Nobody knows when it will be over, but the cracks are showing and the power is shifting. An internationally acceptable solution will transform the economic prospects for the region and particularly for South Africa, which will act as the gateway for the resurrection of the Zimbabwean economy.
10. Cope gets 15%
This is the uppermost estimate in the range being given for our next general election. If it happens at least one or two provincial and municipal governments will change hands, and we will settled down to being a normal democracy where the ruling party has a majority in the 50%s and runs the risk of losing the next election if it doesn't govern well.
Visit www.mindofafox.com to find out more from futurist Clem Sunter.
Send your comments to Clem.
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