'Expect more natural disasters'

2005-10-19 15:00

Beijing - The world will witness more deadly natural disasters as global warming accelerates, with unchecked population growth putting large numbers of people at risk, a top scientific group said on Wednesday.

The Paris-based International Council for Science recommended an international research body be established as a matter of urgency to provide a firmer basis for policies to tackle the problem.

"The devastating effects of the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan, the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the August 2005 Hurricane Katrina are vivid reminders that natural disasters are a global issue," it said.

"While very large events are, fortunately, fairly rare, the frequency of recorded natural disasters has been rising rapidly."

"We foresee that the severity of the impacts of extreme events will increase in concert with global warming."

In a report to its annual general assembly in Suzhou, China, the group, one of the oldest non-government organisations in the world, said there were now 2 800 natural disasters per decade.

Last year, natural disasters were estimated to have cost $140bn.

Humans to blame

"Around the globe, population growth in hazardous areas means more and more people are at risk," it said, and blamed humans for helping exacerbate the problem.

"Destruction of mangroves increases the susceptibility of coastal areas to storm damage, and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases can increase the frequency of extreme weather events".

It said politicians needed to be better informed, and said there must be more interaction between policy-makers and scientists.

"We have found ample evidence to suggest that policy-makers may at times act in ignorance or disregard of the relevant scientific information and thereby significantly exacerbate damage resulting from natural hazards," it said.

It cited the failure to make best use of satellite data, failure to invest in prevention, and financial incentives that encourage short-term, localised benefits at the expense of longer-term requirements.

"Today, most national and international investments related to disasters occur after a hazard event - in response and recovery - whereas relatively little investment has been made in mitigation or prevention," the report said.

It recommended a new research body to look at ways to strengthen co-operation between scientists and policy-makers, and better ways to deliver new scientific insights to development and humanitarian agencies.

- AFP