Flu 'could kill 150 million'

2005-09-30 07:39

Edith M Lederer

United Nations - A top UN public health expert warned that a new influenza pandemic is expected at any time and could kill anywhere between five million and 150 million people - depending on action taken now to control the bird flu epidemic sweeping through Asia.

Dr David Nabarro of the World Health Organisation called on governments to take immediate steps to address the threat at a news conference following his appointment as the new UN co-ordinator to lead a global drive to counter a human flu pandemic.

"We expect the next influenza pandemic to come at any time now, and it's likely to be caused by a mutant of the virus that is currently causing bird flu in Asia," he said on Thursday.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has swept through poultry populations in Asia since 2003, infecting humans and killing at least 65 people, mostly poultry workers, and resulting in the deaths of tens of millions of birds.

The virus does not pass from person to person easily, but experts believe this could change if the virus mutates.

Nabarro said with the almost certainty of another influenza pandemic soon, and with experts saying there is a high likelihood of the H5N1 virus mutating, it would be "extremely wrong" to ignore the serious possibility of a global outbreak.

'Avian flu epidemic has to be controlled'

"The avian flu epidemic has to be controlled if we are to prevent a human influenza pandemic," Nabarro said.

The 1918 influenza pandemic killed more than 40 million people, and there were subsequent pandemics in 1957 and 1968 which had lower death rates but caused great disruption, he said.

In a new pandemic, Nabarro said, "the range of deaths could be anything between five and 150 million".

"I believe the work we're doing over the next few months on prevention and preparedness will make the difference between, for example, whether the next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 (million) or in the direction of five (million)," he said.

"So our effectiveness will be directly measured in lives saved and the consequences for the world," Nabarro said.

Annan asked Navarro to take a leave from his current post as WHO's executive director for sustainable development and health environments.

Nabarro, a British physician, will head a new office in New York co-ordinating UN efforts and supporting local, national, regional and global preparations for a potential human influenza pandemic.

While the UN's efforts will initially focus on Asian countries, Nabarro said that because of the flight patterns of migratory birds, "and our perception that the virus is in the migratory birds, we need to be looking at this globally".

Countries in Africa, the Middle East, the former Soviet bloc and central Europe, and even the Western hemisphere including the United States are also at risk because of migratory birds.

- AP