'Negotiations will be tough'

2005-12-09 09:51

Montreal - Negotiations on charting the next steps on combating climate change were going down to the wire on Friday, with the United States cast once more in the villain's role.

A core group of diplomats were haggling over a proposal for the United Nation's Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to launch talks on making deep, long-term cuts in this heat-trapping pollution.

These talks would focus on commitments made under the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol, after the present pledging period runs out in 2012.

The proposal is couched only in the vaguest terms, yet it has run into hostility from the United States.

Washington walked out of Kyoto in 2001, citing the cost of meeting the treaty's legal requirements to curb dangerous greenhouse gases.

"The game isn't over, the negotiations will be extremely tough," French environment minister Nelly Olin said on Thursday, but added defiantly: "If the United States says no, that will not stop us moving forward."

Only a tiny advance

The US nearly destroyed Kyoto by abandoning it, although the deal was eventually saved and took effect in February 2005.

But even if all its commitments are made, the outcome will make only a tiny advance against what is a gigantic problem.

There is universal recognition that future efforts against man-made global warming are doomed unless the world's top carbon polluter is included.

Almost as important is to get highly populous, fast-growing developing countries, such as China (the world's No 2 polluter) and India, in a closer co-operation.

Under the present Kyoto format, only industrialised countries that have ratified the accord have to make specific emissions cuts in greenhouse gases.

These nations are most to blame for global warming because they were the first to use oil, gas and coal to power their economic rise.

Uncertain about the future

Scientists say that the post-2012 "son of Kyoto" must deliver swinging cuts in carbon emissions as compared to the present promises, otherwise the earth may suffer catastrophic damage to its climate system.

Many say annual pollution levels should be halved over the next half-century - a tall order given that emission levels today are racing ever higher and fossil fuels are enthroned in the world's energy mix.

If the broad mandate for launching post-2012 negotiations is approved by the UNFCCC, negotiations on Kyoto's post-2012 "commitment period" are likely to be strung out over several years and be bitterly divisive.

Among the unknowns: whether the US, after the departure of President George W. Bush in January 2009, can be coaxed back into the Kyoto fold, and how far China, India and other big developing countries will want to make targeted emissions cuts.

The three-day meeting at ministerial level began on Wednesday, culminating a 12-day gathering that has drawn 8 700 participants.

- AFP