Coming: Deadly heatwaves

2007-04-12 09:17

Eliane Engeler

Geneva - Masses of dolphins in the Mediterranean could die from warmer sea temperatures, while seals up north will have trouble finding sea ice to breed.

Sweltering summers will put livestock at risk in Britain and reduce crop yields along the Atlantic coast. Millions of people in low-lying coastal areas could see their houses swallowed by rising sea levels. Heatwaves scorching the continent will become commonplace.

This is the bleak outlook for Europe outlined in the second of four expert reports explaining how global warming is changing life on Earth.

Scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a summary of their findings on global warming last Friday in Brussels, Belgium, and published the chapter on Europe on Wednesday in Geneva.

"At least one summer out of two will be at least as hot as 2003 ... by the end of this century," said Martin Beniston, a University of Geneva professor who contributed to the report. He was referring to the European heatwave that was blamed for the deaths of tens of thousands of people and cost $15m in agricultural losses.

Regions particularly prone to heatwaves are the western parts of France, Germany and Switzerland, as well as areas of England and southern Europe, Beniston told reporters.

Deaths from heatwaves are likely to rise, but climate change poses numerous other health risks: more micro bacteria affecting water quality, more air pollution, earlier and longer pollen seasons and the increased risk of skin cancer due to ozone depletion.

Plants, animals threatened

According to the report, more than half of Europe's plant species will be endangered or face extinction by 2080 because of rising temperatures.

Dolphins in the Mediterranean could die on a "large scale" from diseases triggered by increased sea temperature, while the icy breeding grounds seals need to reproduce will diminish considerably.

Hotter summers and droughts will threaten livestock such as pigs and broiler chickens in Britain, the report says. Droughts along the Atlantic coast could reduce the productivity of forage crops in Ireland.

Southern Europe will be more severely affected by global warming than northern Europe, according to the panel. The hot and semiarid climate in the south will become even warmer and more exposed to drought.

With higher summer temperatures, tourists will likely shift their Mediterranean holiday visits to the spring or autumn, the report says. Tourism destinations may move farther north and up the mountains.

With the warmer European winters, less energy will be needed for heating but torrid summer temperatures will escalate the demand for cooling systems.

Rising sea levels

By 2100, heating requirements in Finland will decrease 20 to 30% and around 40% in Switzerland. But scientists estimate that in some parts of southern Europe, such as Italy or Spain, electricity needs for cooling will increase by 50%.

Sea levels around the planet are expected to rise about two to four times faster than today, the report says, predicting an elevation of up to 0.88m by 2100. In Europe, sea levels may rise even 50% higher than this, according to the panel.

Up to 2.5 million people in the Mediterranean, northern and western Europe might experience coastal flooding by 2080, leading to land loss, salinisation of groundwater and the destruction of houses, the report warns.

In northern Europe, winters will be warmer and more rain and water run-off is expected to lead to forest growth and an increase in agricultural productivity. But greater flooding, coastal erosion and the melting of glaciers and permafrost are likely to offset the beneficial effects.

But Europe is still relatively well equipped to deal with the effects, Beniston said.

"It is going to be less dramatic than in the developing world," he said, adding that Europe's health systems should be able to cope with many of the negative impacts.

- AP