Is Marthinus heading for Home?

2004-04-15 22:20

Sue Segar

Cape Town - As the fortunes of the New National Party looked substantially lower than they did in 1999, the big question was: where would leader and Western Cape Premier Marthinus van Schalkwyk end up?

One political commentator, Richard Calland of the Institute for a Democratic Alternative for South Africa (Idasa), believes there is a strong possibility Van Schalkwyk could replace Inkatha Freedom Party leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi as minister of home affairs.

Calland said on Thursday the appointment of Van Schalkwyk to the position would be "plausible, logical and reasonable".

He said there was a strong possibility, given the present tensions between the African National Congress and the IFP, that the ruling party might jettison them - and effectively "swop partners" in key positions.

Calland said that, with a growing likelihood of the ANC taking the premiership of the Western Cape for its own premier candidate, Ebrahim Rasool, the party would have to compensate the New NP for its co-operation in another way.

He might be offered a cabinet post

"The ANC needs the Nats in the Western Cape and also, probably, in KwaZulu-Natal," said Calland.

"Depending on what happens in KZN, the ANC might find a way of removing Buthelezi from the national government and of bringing Van Schalkwyk in.

"But, if they co-operate with the New NP, they have to give Van Schalkwyk something else - preferably a cabinet position."

Calland believed Van Schalkwyk would be "quite good" as minister of home affairs.

"He is a good technician and he is well organised - and what that department really needs is good organisation, calm and stability.

"With Buthelezi and his advisor, Mario Ambrosini, at the helm, home affairs has been wracked by tensions.

"They have not delivered as they should have over the past 10 years."

Meanwhile, the ANC's would-be premier Rasool said on Thursday that, while the future of the ANC/New NP coalition was not in question, the terms of the coalition - such as who became premier - might change, depending on the outcome of the elections.

The NNP's figures 'have plummeted'

"The terms will be determined by voting strength," Rasool said.

Meanwhile, Douglas Gibson of the Democratic Alliance said the election results would leave Van Schalkwyk with no choice but to resign as leader of his "failed party".

Gibson said it had become clear the NNP was set to be decimated at the polls.

"Van Schalkwyk must take responsibility for his failed leadership and step down."

Gibson said that under Van Schalkwyk, the NNP had systematically lost support.

"When he took over as leader in 1997, his party enjoyed just under 21% at the polls. In the 1999 general election, it lost almost two-thirds or 66% of its support, down to 6.87%.

"Now, in 2004, it seems the NNP is set to get no more than 3% and, possibly, as little as 2%.

'Have now paid the ultimate price'

"This would amount to yet another two-thirds of former NNP voters deserting it.

"In the Western Cape, the NNP looks set to crash from 38% in 1999 to around 10%, possibly lower," said Gibson.

"Van Schalkwyk has abused the faith placed in him by the electorate.

"He has consistently exercised poor judgment, and he has never once put the interests of the electorate before his own personal well-being.

"Both he and the NNP have now paid the ultimate price."

Watch the provisional results of the national and provincial elections as they come in on News24.com

- The Witness