SA could be in for drought

2009-07-09 22:05

Johannesburg - South Africa could be in for a drought, with a "fairly high probability" of El Nino conditions in the next six months.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures had warmed up in the past month, indicating the transition into El Nino conditions, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) said on Thursday.

El Nino is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon.

There was a 50% chance of an El Nino event in the next six months at least, SAWS said, based on information from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Climate Prediction Centre, both in the United States, and its own model.

While the forecasts showed that the 2009/10 El Nino event might not be strong, SAWS said the intensity of El Nino events did not indicate how much they could influence southern African rainfall totals during the summer months.

"The relatively weak El Nino events at the beginning of the 1990s were associated with intense drought over the region, while rainfall totals during the very strong 1997/98 event were close to the average over the larger part of South Africa," it said.

"Notwithstanding, El Nino events are much more often associated with drought conditions over the region than not."
 

- SAPA