Mbeki going for broke?

2007-08-15 11:24

Johannesburg - South African President Thabo Mbeki's dismissal of his respected deputy health minister has handed political ammunition to critics who accuse him of purging opponents as he tries to hold on to political power.

Mbeki, facing a fierce battle to maintain leadership of his ruling African National Congress (ANC), sacked Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge for insubordination, sparking a public outcry.

Aside from the political fallout, the move raised fresh concerns over his commitment to fighting Aids, which infects an estimated 12% of South Africa's 47 million people.

Madlala-Routledge, a rising star in the South African Communist Party, has publicly criticised the health minister, a close Mbeki ally who horrified Aids activists by suggesting fighting Aids with garlic and beetroot rather than drugs.

Hitting opponents?

The baffling question is: why would Mbeki fire a widely praised health official and stand by a minister many say is out of touch with reality?

"It seems Mbeki is going for broke. It's as if he is randomly shooting and hoping to hit any opponent he can," said Sipho Seepe, a director of the Graduate Institute of Management and Technology.

In one respect, Mbeki, known as a cunning strategist who quietly eases out opponents, appears to have made an uncharacteristic miscalculation. The costs were high.

Then again, it is not the first time Mbeki has gone against overwhelming public opinion and he may have even anticipated some of the fallout.

He was savaged in newspapers, some of which described his style as "autocratic", and accused him of undermining what has been called South Africa's democratic miracle after apartheid.

An editorial in the Sunday Independent entitled "Nozizwe's gone but our babies are still dying", accused Mbeki of trying to stifle opposition and said he will fail.

"Silencing the few brave voices that speak out will not make them go away," it said.

Fight for ANC leadership

Mbeki, meanwhile, faces mounting opposition to his widely perceived bid to influence South Africa even after he steps down as head of state.

He is barred from serving again as president after his current term expires in 2009 but can contest the ANC leadership, something Mbeki has said he is willing to do.

Traditionally, because the ANC dominates South Africa's politics, the party president becomes president of the country.

But if Mbeki stands for the ANC presidency at a party conference in December and wins, he would split the country's top leadership posts and retain control over South African politics even as he relinquishes the state presidency.

Mbeki does not have much time to manoeuvre, even if he recovers from his health ministry crisis.

Mbeki has watched support slip away from crucial political allies - unions and the South African Communist party (SACP).

They are increasingly critical of his pro-business policies and accuse Mbeki of neglecting the poor, many of whom live in grim townships that have yet to benefit from an economic boom.

Their frustrations exploded when trade unions flexed their muscles by holding crippling strikes in June.

These pressures, political analysts say, forced Mbeki to sack Madlala-Routledge, who had won widespread praise for her direct and proactive approach to tackling Aids.

Her outspoken views had showed up a government accused of dragging its feet on the fight against Aids and related diseases, which kill an estimated 1 000 South Africans a day.

Alienate leftists

And instead of weakening her, losing her job has only strengthened Madlala-Routledge's public profile and lent weight to the anti-Mbeki ANC camp.

Just before her sacking, she was elected to the top brass of the SACP, which has been among the most vocal critics of her axing, meaning Mbeki's move could further alienate the ANC from its leftist allies.

Susan Booysen, a political analyst at the University of the Witwatersrand, said this may have been perfect timing for Mbeki's opponents in the fractured ANC as they dig in for the leadership race.

"She posed a threat. Her position in the communist party and the strong possibility she would be a candidate for a high post in government were clearly a concern for Mbeki," she said.

As for Mbeki, he appears to be busy with damage control.

After days of widespread criticism, he broke his silence and publicly released the dismissal letter to his former deputy health minister, which stressed she was not a team player and had taken a trip to Spain without his approval.

On Monday, he stood up for his health minister again, possibly inviting a new wave of condemnation.

"The Presidency would like to reassure all South Africans of the integrity of the public health system as led by Minister Tshabalala-Msimang," he said in a statement.

- Reuters