D-Day for Zuma

2005-06-14 06:52

Political staff

Cape Town - At 14:00 on Tuesday, President Thabo Mbeki will announce the fate of his deputy, Jacob Zuma, in parliament.

And Zuma will be looking him squarely in the eye while he is doing so.

The deputy president's office has confirmed that he will attend the session.

Following 10 days of speculation, agitation and uncertainty, presidential spokesperson Bheki Khumalo confirmed on Monday that Mbeki had called an special sitting of the national assembly and the national council of provinces regarding "all matters arising from the Shaik court case".

This brings an end to the uncertainty cloaked in presidential silence since Judge Hilary Squires found that a "generally corrupt relationship" existed between Zuma and Shaik.

Ever since, Zuma and his supporters have maintained that he is innocent and did not have the opportunity to state his case in court.

Seven-hour meeting

Even though the past 10 days proved that predictions are meaningless, ANC MPs and sources in the ANC 's headquarters are increasingly of the opinion that Mbeki, who plays his cards close to the chest, is going to pull the rug from under Zuma.

This follows on a meeting on Monday at the ANC's head office, Luthuli House, attended by Mbeki, Zuma and other ANC leaders.

Zuma left the meeting more than two hours before the rest.

"This can only mean that Zuma has resigned or has been asked to resign because criminal charges are pending," a member of the ANC's national executive committee said.

"It must be big, else Mbeki would have called a media conference," a senior ANC MP remarked.

Loan agreements

Sources in Luthuli House pointed out that Squires found both the vanished "loan agreement" between Zuma and Shaik and the document in which Zuma indicates that he owes Shaik money wanting.

Rumours were that within the context of parliament's and the cabinet's ethical codes, as well as the ANC's code of conduct, this could cause renewed problems for the deputy president.

Zuma's position in the ANC could be a hot potato to Mbeki because, although Mbeki can sack Zuma as deputy president, only a disciplinary committee can suspend him as the ANC's deputy leader.

Three options

Mbeki basically has three options.

The first is to say the legal process should follow its course and to leave Zuma's position unchanged.

This is possible but unlikely, given Zuma's inciting of supporters and the negative repercussions for the country's image abroad.

The second option - and the most likely - is to temporarily remove Zuma from his position and not to appoint a substitute until a charge is brought against him.

This could still take some time, since even though the national prosecuting authority will be meeting on Tuesday, an announcement regarding prosecution is not expected so soon.

The third option is to sack Zuma on Tuesday, which is unlikely given the discord this would cause within the ANC - but it is not impossible.

- Beeld