South Africa - what's next?

2008-09-22 10:36

Johannesburg - President Thabo Mbeki told the country on Sunday night he was stepping down after his ruling African National Congress demanded he leave office over allegations he abused power in the corruption case against new party leader Jacob Zuma.

Mbeki told the nation in a live televised broadcast he had tendered his resignation which would become effective from a date to be determined by Parliament, which is meeting on Monday.

Here are some questions and answers related to South Africa's biggest political crisis since the country's first multi-race elections in 1994.

Will the government collapse?

A number of pro-Mbeki cabinet ministers have threatened to resign in solidarity with their deposed leader. An exodus could paralyse or bring the government down, forcing the ANC-dominated Parliament to dissolve and call early elections.

Zuma and ANC officials are working behind the scenes to keep the Cabinet intact during a transitional government. Finance Minister Trevor Manuel has indicated he is not resigning.

ANC Treasurer-General Mathews Phosa said in a televised debate the party will announce the acting state president on Monday, adding the party wanted the current cabinet to remain.

Who will lead a transitional government?

Zuma, who is the frontrunner to win the presidential election next year, holds no position in the government and is unlikely to assume the presidency during a transitional period set to last about six months until elections due in April 2009.

Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka should, after Mbeki's resignation, assume the presidency. She is not liked by Zuma's camp and has already indicated she will follow Mbeki.

A Cabinet minister, possibly Manuel or ANC Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, could fill the breach. Zuma supporters, appear to favour Baleka Mbete, the Speaker of Parliament.

How unstable will South Africa become?

Mbeki's removal is the gravest crisis to confront the ANC since it came to power in 1994 after the end of white minority rule. It coincides with a slowdown in the economy, which is struggling to contain inflation and an electricity crisis.

There is speculation pro-Mbeki loyalists may quit the ANC and form a breakaway party. Such a move could clip the conservative, pro-business wing of the ANC, effectively making it a captive of powerful trade unions and the small, but influential, communist party.

Investors are wary of a Zuma-led government despite his reassurances there will be no major policy changes. He seen by some as an untested leader and his strong backing from the left has caused jitters.

South Africa's currency, the rand, could weaken if the transition goes badly.

How is Africa, rest of the world affected?

Foreign policy will take a backseat to domestic issues in a Zuma-controlled government. The ANC has vowed to intensify its battle against poverty and high unemployment, having grumbled about how much time Mbeki spent on the world stage.

South Africa's influence overseas could be dented by the loss of Mbeki, who has successfully mediated an end to a number of African conflicts and acted as a broker between rich industrialised nations and the developing world.

The departure casts a cloud over Zimbabwe, where Mbeki's mediation led to a power-sharing deal between President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. It is unclear who would mediate if the deal, now at an impasse, falls apart.

Zuma has been tougher on Mugabe's government, but he may not have the time to intervene if the crisis flares up.

What happens next?

The ANC's parliamentary caucus is expected to meet on Monday to draw up the strategy for formally removing Mbeki and decide on a new acting president.

Mbeki's willingness to step aside without a fight makes it unlikely that Parliament, where the ANC holds a two-thirds majority, will resort to impeaching him or putting forth a non-confidence vote in him or his government.

Once Mbeki resigns, Parliament will have 30 days to appoint a successor.

- Reuters