Watch Pat in 2004 elections

2003-03-28 20:01

Cape Town - With a "staggering" figure of 45% of the vote up for grabs Patricia de Lille's new party could have a role to play in Western Cape politics, the Institute for Democracy in South Africa said on Friday.

Cherrel Africa, a senior political analyst at Idasa's Public Opinion Service said: "De Lille has chosen the opportune moment to form a new party, and does not come with the perceived baggage of Peter Marais."

Former Pan Africanist Congress stalwart De Lille took advantage of a recent floor-crossing window period to jump ship on Wednesday and form a new party, the Independent Democrats.

A day later, former New National Party darling Peter Marais also announced he would leave that party to form an as-yet-unnamed political party.

According to the latest national Afrobarometer study on political party support in South Africa conducted in late 2002, the African National Congress enjoys a voting lead in all nine provinces.

"In the Western Cape this amounts to 32% of the vote, but interestingly the same amount of 32% indicated they will not vote. If one adds to this the nine percent who refuse to vote and the four percent who don't know, there is a significant 45 percent proportion up for grabs in the region," said Africa.

She said this meant that one out of three people would possibly not vote.

Insecurity, instability

"The municipal floor-crossing legislation appears to have played a big role in people's perceptions, with a general withdrawal of voters noted in the Western Cape from the political system."

Africa said that allegations of corruption, chopping and changing, the municipal and most recent provincial and national floor-crossing, had left many voters with a sense of "insecurity and instability".

"Regionally Marais stands a chance, but nationally De Lille could make a difference if she markets herself properly... but with only 12 months left before the next general elections it could prove difficult for new parties to prove themselves, with no track record with which voters can judge them by."

Africa predicted that all eyes would again be on the Western Cape during the 2004 elections. Campaigning would be "hotting up" as elections drew closer and when the "coloured vote, which has the balance of power" in the region was once again contested.

"Political parties clearly have their work cut out in terms of drawing voters to the polls in the Western Cape," she said.

- SAPA