Urban support for ANC plunges

2008-12-01 22:31

Cape Town - There was an 11% drop in support for the ANC in major metropolitan areas around the time of the establishment of the new Congress of the People (Cope) party, according to a survey released on Monday.

Conducted by TNS Research Surveys between October 23 and November 9, it involved 2 000 adults from South Africa's major metropolitan areas, including Bloemfontein, Cape Town, Durban, East London, Johannesburg, Port Elizabeth and Pretoria.

The survey notes the SA National Convention conference, which led to the establishment of Cope, was held in Sandton on November 2.

"Accordingly, it is important to examine the results of this survey before November 2 and after November 2 separately, also ensuring that these two sub-samples are weighted to the same profiles."

People were asked to say for which party they would be most likely to vote in the next national election.

'Where did ANC's support go?'

"In the sub-sample polled prior to November 2, the ANC was given by 41% [of those surveyed]... However, post November 2, this dropped to just 30%."

According to the survey, support for Cope remained steady at 3% among both sub-sample sets over this period. "So where did the ANC's 11 points go? The principal effect is to increase uncertainty."

The proportion of people who gave a "don't know" response rose from 16% to 19%. In addition, the proportion of people who refused to divulge who they would vote for rose from 10% to 14%.

The percentage of those who said they would not vote changed very little, from 14% to 15%.

These results suggested "there may have been a slightly greater sensitivity to divulging one's voting preference in the week after the... [new party's] conference".

Zuma as president

The 4% increase in the number of people who refused to divulge their voting preference suggested some of them "may well be Cope supporters, [and] it is likely that the Cope figure of 3% [support] in metro areas is a slight underestimate".

The survey also asked those surveyed how they felt ruling party president Jacob Zuma would perform as a possible president of South Africa.

"People were asked if they thought Jacob Zuma would do a good job as president of South Africa. Over the full sample, 36% said 'yes', 40% said 'no' and 25% gave a 'don't know' response."

TNS said the survey - conducted among a sample of 1 260 blacks, 385 whites, 240 coloureds and 115 Indians/Asians in the seven major metropolitan areas - had a margin of error of under 2.5%.

- SAPA