Iraqi poll crucial for Bush

2005-12-11 08:16

Washington - US President George W Bush hopes Iraq's general election this week will help him bring some US troops home in 2006, a move that may mollify a growing chorus of Americans calling for a swift withdrawal.

At the same time, the embattled Bush has spoken out recently with unusual candor and unprecedented detail about past "mistakes," current "challenges" and the "uneven" pace of progress on the economic and security fronts.

"There will be good days and there will be bad days in this war. I reject the pessimists in Washington who say we can't win this war," he said last Wednesday in a speech aimed at pumping up flagging US support.

The White House has been aggressively selling the December 15 vote as a critical step in what it describes as steady progress towards building a democracy in Iraq despite the bloody insurgency there.

"The Iraqi people have shown time and time again that they are going to defy the terrorists and those Saddam (Hussein) loyalists who want to return to the past or those terrorists who want to deny them the right to live in freedom," spokesperson Scott McClellan said Thursday.

As proof, McClellan said, more and more Iraqis are embracing the political system there, from eight million who voted in January elections to 10 million taking part in an October constitutional referendum.

"We saw those numbers increase," he told reporters. "The Iraqi people want to live in freedom."

The White House has repeatedly touted Iraqi political benchmarks like previous elections or the June 2004 handover of power to an interim government - only to see the Iraqi death toll soar and the number of slain US troops climb to roughly 2,100 soldiers.

Approval raitings

Bush's approval ratings have suffered as a result: widespread unhappiness about the war weighs heavily on his popularity, even though his poll numbers have edged up from their worst levels ever because of more positive views about the US economy.

The New York Times/CBS news poll found 58% of the US public want him to set a timetable for pulling out the roughly 160 000 US troops in Iraq - something the president has flatly rejected as essentially accepting defeat.

But a White House-produced "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq" laid out plans to cut US forces there in 2006 if the elections go well and the security situation improves - while flatly denying they were bowing to pressure.

"In 2006, I think, you know, the expectation is that conditions will be changing on the ground. We've been making real progress with the training of Iraqi security forces and that conditions will permit us to be able to reduce our presence," said McClellan.

That could mean a reduction ahead of the November US legislative elections at a time when Bush's Republicans worry the unpopular war will cost them dearly in the voting booth.

Withdrawal

Last month, a public opinion survey by the respected Harris Poll firm found that a majority of Americans do not think Iraq will become a stable democracy government and would like US troops to come home next year.

And the get-out-of-Iraq camp drew a substantial amount of energy recently when hawkish Democratic Representative John Murtha stunned the Washington political establishment by calling for an immediate withdrawal.

Other Democrats, including several thought to be strong contenders for their party's 2008 presidential nomination, have urged Bush to offer a detailed plan for Iraq - with precise dates by which specific goals must be accomplished.

The White House and its de facto political arm, the Republican National Committee, initially countered aggressively by painting Democrats as surrendering to terrorists and undermining US troops in the field.

But the Bush administration has also offered more detailed explanations of what it sees as progress on the political, economic, and security fronts, while saying any withdrawal will depend on the conditions in Iraq.

- AFP