Jury still out on US 'evidence'

2003-02-05 22:27

Alistair Lyon

Amman - US Secretary of State Colin Powell's attempt to indict Iraq's over doomsday weapons and links to al-Qaeda will comfort the converted, but may not persuade doubters that Washington has a cast-iron case for war.

Analysts said Powell, marshalling audio tapes and satellite photos in a dramatic presentation to the UN Security Council on Wednesday, had made damning charges against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, without providing conclusive proof.

"It will convince those who want to be convinced," said Ali Ansari, a Middle East specialist at Britain's Durham University. "It will make the anti-war people uncomfortable. The taped conversations show the Iraqis were hiding something."

Sceptics immediately said the United States could have manipulated the tapes of suspicious conversations between Iraqi officers or digitally doctored the satellite pictures of incriminating activity around alleged weapons sites.

"Powell's speech is intelligence reports that give no concrete evidence on the ground," said Ahmed Abdel Rahman, a senior aide to Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat.

"We can say that this speech launches a new phase for US control over the world and the question remains whether other international groups will accept this unilateral US guardianship over the Middle East," he said.

The United States and Britain say Iraq has defied last year's Security Council resolution that gave Baghdad a final chance to disarm or face serious consequences. Iraq denies having biological, chemical or nuclear arms programmes.

Points for style

Several defence experts said they had been impressed, at least by the style of Powell's presentation.

"In public relations terms, this is very strong," said Barthelemy Courmont, of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations in Paris.

But Courmont, a specialist in nuclear issues and US policy, said the photos and tapes fell short of proof and the interpretation Powell had placed on them was open to debate.

He said the material could help UN arms inspectors in Iraq. "But one can't attack on the basis of a presumption on the basis of some photographs. That would be dangerous," he added.

Kenneth Boutin, a senior arms control and disarmament researcher at the Verification Research, Training and Information Centre in London, also said the inspectors might find elements of Powell's presentation useful.

"One can dispute the evidence but it does suggest the (banned weapons) programme is ongoing...it does seem to be a rather large amount of evidence," he declared.

Oded Granot, an expert on Arab affairs for Israeli Channel One television, said Powell had offered circumstantial evidence with a cumulative weight greater than its parts.

What Powell had shown was "not the smoking gun but the place the gun was laid before being removed ahead of inspections".

In Russia, which has argued for the inspectors to be given more time, independent defence analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said Powell's mention of al-Qaeda activity in Chechnya and attempts to poison Russians was likely to please Moscow.

"Some of the ideas presented would hardly stand up in a court," he said. "But it gave the right impression that Saddam Hussein is capable of producing weapons of mass destruction."

Ellie Goldsworthy, of London's Royal United Services Institute, said Powell had made a convincing case.

"I think it will be a wakeup call to some of the countries sitting on the fence. I think there will be some squirming in the seats today," she said.

For many analysts, Powell's allegations of links between Iraq and Osama bin Laden's network raised more eyebrows than his charges that Iraq still had weapons of mass destruction and was systematically trying to hide them from the UN inspectors.

"The al-Qaeda linkage is quite new and something which people will put under a lot of scrutiny," said Tim Ripley of the Centre for Defence and International Studies at Britain's Lancaster University.

Arabs unimpressed

Some Arab commentators derided the alleged connection. "This is very, very weak evidence," Abdel-Bari Atwan, editor of the London-based Arab newspaper al-Quds, told CNN.

"There is no link with al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda hates Saddam and they consider him a secular leader," said Atwan, who has interviewed the Saudi-born bin Laden.

Khaled al-Maeena, editor-in-chief of Saudi Arabia's Arab News daily, said Powell had tediously gone over old ground, "trying to imitate history, like Adlai Stevenson on the Cubans, but in a very pathetic manner".

He was referring to the former US secretary of state who showed the Security Council photographs of Soviet nuclear missiles installed in Cuba during the 1962 crisis.

In Kuwait, whose occupation by Iraqi forces led to the 1991 Gulf War, lawyer and former oil minister Ali al-Baghli said Powell had not proved his case beyond reasonable doubt.

"But it throws more doubt on Saddam Hussein's behaviour," he said, adding that Powell had signalled to the world that the United States and Britain would pursue their chosen path.

Charles Heyman, London-based editor of Jane's World Armies, said Powell had "done his homework", but had been unconvincing on Iraq's alleged links to al-Qaeda.

"I doubt anyone sceptical will have been won over," he said, arguing that the speech would provide fresh material for both the pro- and anti-war camps to debate. "I think at the end of the day it was for American domestic consumption," he added.

- Reuters