Missing weapons may sink Bush

2004-10-29 08:05

Washington - A huge munitions cache that has gone missing in Iraq is not exactly an election bombshell for President George W Bush but it could be the unpleasant "October Surprise" that taints many United States campaigns.

Defined in the Oxford English Dictionary as "an unexpected but popular political act or speech made just prior to a November election in an attempt to win votes," the "October surprise" threatens to fell an opponent at the finish line.

Political junkies also view an embarrassing news story as an "October surprise," and some believe US headlines over the 342 tons of explosives that disappeared from an Iraqi arms dump constitute just such a setback for Bush.

Democratic rival John Kerry has made the missing munitions his key line of attack in the final days before Tuesday's vote.

An October surprise veteran

Bush is on the defensive. But he is an "October surprise" veteran.

"Four years ago, the late-breaking story which really allowed (Democrat) Al Gore to close the gap with Bush was the discovery of Bush's driving under the influence conviction," said Elaine Kamarck, a professor at Harvard University.

Days before the 2000 election, the Bush campaign was forced into damage-control after a television channel reported Bush had been arrested in Maine in 1976 for driving under the influence of alcohol.

Kamarck and John Hulsman, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said the story hurt Bush and dissuaded some Evangelical Christians from voting for him.

Asked about the Iraqi munitions, Hulsman said: "Everything makes this into an Oliver Stone story ... with the election so close, anything could turn it, literally anything.

"Such a small thing could affect one to two percent of the population and that's all it takes," Hulsman said.

Such late breaking stories can be critical in tight elections where opposing candidates are running neck and neck like Bush and Kerry, as it did in 1968's close contest between challenger Richard Nixon and Democratic vice-presidential candidate Hubert Humphrey.

Five days before the election, on October 31, 1968, President Lyndon Johnson announced a halt to the air bombing of North Vietnam, citing developments in the Paris peace talks.

Media tsunami

The announcement boosted Humphrey in polls, but when the South Vietnamese government signalled it would not negotiate, Humphrey's ratings slid and Nixon won by a razor's edge.

"Sixty-eight is a very good one ... in the last month of the campaign, Humphrey came out of nowhere to give Nixon a scare, so he (Johnson) did this, attempted to put him over the top, and then the South Vietnamese torpedoed it," Hulsman said.

"These stories rarely go as the people who are manipulating them want."

The danger now is that an "October surprise" can provoke a media tsunami across 24-hour news channels and internet blogs, beyond the control of campaign spin doctors.

- AFP