Bush has 'plan to end war'

2005-11-30 17:30

Washington - The White House, in its most detailed public plan yet for success in Iraq, said on Wednesday it expected to reduce US forces there in 2006 but warned the country would face violence "for many years to come".

"No war has ever been won on a timetable and neither will this one," US President George W Bush's national security council said in a policy paper entitled National Strategy for Victory in Iraq, dated November 2005.

The White House released the strategy to set the stage for a speech a few hours later by Bush, who hoped to convince a sceptical US public two and a half years after the war began that he has a plan to end it.

Bush was to make remarks on Wednesday at a time when his poll numbers have sunk to their lowest to date and more and more Americans want him to chart a course for a quick US withdrawal.

Long-term victory will come when Iraq is "peaceful, united, stable and secure, well integrated into the international community, and a full partner in the war on terrorism", according to the 35-page document.

"Many challenges remain," it said, warning that "terrorism and insurgencies historically take many years to defeat" and that "Iraq is likely to struggle with some level of violence for many years to come".

'Inhospitable' climate for Iraqi democracy

The policy paper blamed Syria and Iran for creating an "inhospitable" climate for Iraqi democracy by backing insurgents and terrorists and - without naming names - complained that other countries in the region had "only recently mobilised" to help.

It also shed little light on the constantly fluctuating assessments of how many of Iraq's fledgling security forces can operate independently of the US military.

There are currently some 159 000 US troops there, and some 2 100 have been killed since Bush launched the March 2003 invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, most in the bloody insurgency that followed.

"Although we are confident of victory in Iraq, we will not put a date certain on when each stage of success will be reached, because the timing of success depends upon meeting certain conditions, not arbitrary timetables," it said.

Confirming recent statements by the White House and the Pentagon, the policy paper suggested that the US military would reduce its presence in Iraq next year after building them up ahead of the country's December 15 elections.

"We expect, but cannot guarantee, that our force posture will change over the next year, as the political process advances and Iraqi security forces grow and gain experience," it said.

That could mean a reduction in the US military presence ahead of the November US legislative elections at a time when Bush's Republicans worry the unpopular war will cost them dearly in the voting booth.

White House spokesperson Scott McClellan said on Tuesday that Bush's speech, the first in a series of appeals for support ahead of Iraq's elections, would centre on efforts to train Iraqi security forces to replace US soldiers.

- AFP