Insurgents 'could get stronger'

2005-12-02 13:04

Washington - Despite US claims of progress in quelling the insurgency in Iraq, it remains as robust as ever with a potential for becoming a good deal stronger, according to a new study released on Thursday.

The study by two veteran defence analysts working for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy also said the US operation in Iraq was at a "tipping point" that will last for six to nine months.

"I think the outcome of this tipping period is probably going to dictate whether or not the US effort in Iraq succeeds or fails," analyst Jeffrey White said at a lunch unveiling the report.

The study said the insurgency, comprised of nationalists, members of Saddam Hussein's toppled regime and foreign Islamic fighters, showed no sign of losing steam 32 months after the US-led invasion.

"Although thousands of insurgents have been killed and tens of thousands of Iraqis have been detained ... incident and casualty data reinforce the impression that the insurgency is as robust and lethal as ever," it said.

Moreover, the researchers said, the insurgency has managed to exploit only a fraction of the disgruntled minority Sunni Muslim population with any kind of military training.

"Should the insurgency succeed in exploiting this untapped potential, it could greatly increase its military capabilities," they wrote.

The report was prepared by White, who spent 34 years at the Pentagon's Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), and Michael Eisenstadt, a former civilian-military analyst with the US army.

The tone contrasted with the assertion in the "national strategy for victory in Iraq" unveiled by President George W. Bush on Wednesday that US forces were making "significant progress" in containing the insurgency.

White and Eisenstadt said the war in Iraq was still winnable. "The path to victory, however, will be protracted and costly, and is likely to be punctuated by additional setbacks," they wrote.

- AFP