Gulf states fear Shiite victory

2005-01-03 19:02

Hassan al-Fekih

Dubai - The likely prospect of a Shiite victory in this month's landmark Iraqi elections is making the oil-rich Gulf monarchies apprehensive, fearing Tehran's growing influence in the region.

Concerns were voiced last month by Jordan's King Abdullah II, who in an interview with the Washington Post accused Iran of trying to influence Iraq's January 30 vote in a bid to create a "crescent" dominated by Shiites extending from Iraq to Lebanon.

The issue is of particular importance to the six Sunni-ruled Gulf states due to their close proximity to Iraq and their indigenous population of around 21 million, 12% of it Shiite.

In Kuwait, which borders Iraq, Shiites form about one-third of the local population.

Kuwaiti foreign minister Sheikh Mohammed al-Sabah last week spoke of his country's fears of emerging sectarianism.

Asked about statements by Iraqi Shiite leaders on establishing a Shiite zone in the south of the country, Sheikh Mohammed reportedly said all sectarian ideas "concern not only Kuwait but all countries" of the region, and recommended that Iraq avoid going down "this dangerous and detestable road".

The Centre for Strategic Studies and Research in the United Arab Emirates has also warned Iraq on the issue.

"More important for the Iraqis is to get rid of sectarianism linked to fanaticism, so that the desired democracy can seek understanding and acceptance of the other," the Abu-Dhabi based centre said in an editorial on its website.

In his December 8 interview, King Abdullah accused Iran of trying to influence the Iraqi elections and said that "the involvement you're getting by the Iranians is to achieve a government that is very pro-Iran".

In response, Iran, which has repeatedly rejected allegations that it is meddling in Iraq, announced on Sunday that its foreign minister Kamal Kharazi is boycotting a conference of Iraq's neighbours in Jordan this week.

Iraq's interim Defence Minister Hazem Shaalan, who has branded Tehran as Baghdad's "most dangerous enemy" and a source of terrorism, last month accused Iran of being behind the Shiite electoral list, calling it "an Iranian list".

Neither has the United States hidden its concern about a wave of Shiism and Washington is seeking to avoid an election that leads to a government without Sunni representation.

Iraq's main Sunni Muslim party has already announced a boycott of the elections, in which the long-oppressed Shiites, who make up about 60% of the country's population, are expected to overturn decades of Sunni-dominated rule.

Shiite personalities in the Gulf monarchies, however, argue that Shiites are not aiming for power.

Sheikh Ali Salman, who heads the Islamic National Accord Association, the main political formation of Bahrain's majority Shiite Muslims, said that the ascendence of Shiites in Iraq does not have a negative impact on the region.

- SAPA