'Bloodshed will rage on'

2004-09-22 12:08

Baghdad - Hopes for Iraqi national elections in January hinge on a dramatic improvement in the country's security situation, but US and UN officials predict bloodshed will rage on through polling day.

"I think we will have lots of hard battles between now and elections because the insurgents know how important it is," a senior US military commander said on condition of anonymity.

UN and Iraqi officials contend that elections - even if conducted amid violence - can still have legitimacy.

"If we did not think they could be credible, I would not be here," said Carlos Valenzuela, the UN representative on Iraq's Independent Electoral Commission, charged with administering the vote.

But Valenzuela did not sugar coat the picture in front of him.

'Difficult times, difficult elections'

"You would certainly hope violence would not be an element but these are difficult times and these will be difficult elections," said Valenzuela, who sits as a non-voting member of the electoral board.

"There is a tight time frame, the security situation is not ready, this is the first time this type of process is happening and you are doing it with an electoral administration just being built," Valenzuela said.

Valenzuela said he has supervised polls in other countries coming out of conflict - such as East Timor, Angola, Mozambique and Liberia - where there was shelling and killing before, during and after the elections.

But intimidation could very much keep people away from the poll stations.

A survey by the US-led occupation in late May-early June found more than 80% of Iraqis wanted to vote, but the number dropped to 30% when asked if they would still cast a ballot if their lives were threatened, a US official said.

Election will 'heal the nation'

But the nine-member Iraq Independent Electoral Commission - just completing the hiring of its core staff this week for all 18 governorates - believes the one-day election for a national assembly, Kurdish parliament and provincial governments will heal the strife-torn nation's divisions.

"We do not think about cancelling or delaying the election. We can't do that. We have the political will of all the Iraqi society for these elections," said board chairperson Dr Hussein Hindawi.

While the body stresses it is operating on time, security for the candidates, the expected 7 000 polling hubs or the 650 registration centres across the country set to open on November 1 has not been finalised.

The US-led coalition forces are banking on pacifying cities across the Sunni Triangle as the key to a stable election and during the mid-December to mid-January campaign period.

"The real enemy to a free Iraq is the former regime, the whole Sunni Triangle. That is what keeps Iraq from being free," the senior commander said.

The commander has identified Fallujah as the crucial city that needs to be reclaimed from insurgents and also singled out the nearby hotspot of Ramadi.

- AFP