Iraq facing the abyss
2006-03-20 07:23
Paul Schemm
Baghdad - Iraq marks the third anniversary of the US-led invasion on Monday deadlocked over its next national government, plagued by rampant lawlessness and faced with the threat of civil war.
Observers fear a strike on the hundreds of thousands of Shiite pilgrims descending on the shrine city of Karbala for a festival which coincides with the anniversary could light the fuse for a new round of communal violence.
US and Iraqi troops have mobilised to avert an attack on Arbayeen, which commemorates the killing of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, whose death in 680 AD introduced the schism between Shiites and Sunnis.
Iraq is on tenterhooks after the February 22 dynamiting of a Shiite shrine in Samarra and car bombings in Baghdad eight days ago, which sparked waves of revenge killings by the country's Shiite majority against the nation's one-time Sunni elite.
In three years, the Iraq war has metamorphosed from a battle between US troops and Sunni insurgents angered by ex-president Saddam Hussein's ouster, to an internecine struggle among Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds.
Foreign fighters like al-Qaeda militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi have also fanned the flames with spectacular attacks meant to trigger a broader conflict.
At least 33 000 Iraqis have died in the violence since 2003, according to the internet site Iraq Body Count which tracks Iraqi casualties.
US President George W Bush guessed last December the toll was at least 30 000, while the British Lancet medical journal put the figure as high as 100 000 in late 2004.
Civil war
Some prominent Iraqis believe the country has already slipped into a low-intensity civil war.
"We are losing each day an average 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not more," former premier Iyad Allawi told the BBC Sunday. "If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is."
Iraq's Kurdish President Jalal Talabani, who himself warned Iraq faced such a danger after the Samarra bombing last month, played down the threat on Sunday.
"The Iraqi people cannot accept a civil war. We are passing through a difficult period right now, but the attachment of Iraqis to their country will prevent such a war," he told reporters.
President Bush also urged Iraqi leaders to form a unity government that "reflects the will of the people", telling reporters America's strategy "will lead to victory."
Despite a newfound urgency after the Samarra bombing, political parties are still bogged down in talks three months after national elections, with disputes over the choice of prime minister and the allotment of ministries.
US promises to rebuild Iraq have noticeably stalled, with much of an $18.4bn reconstruction package diverted to security for contractors and project sites.
- AFP