Worrying signs for Bush

2004-11-02 16:38

Washington - The US presidential race was in a dead heat on Tuesday as Americans cast their ballots but polls showed some worrying signs for George W Bush as he fought off a challenge by Democrat John Kerry.

A CBS News polls confirmed earlier findings by the Gallup organisation that the president's once-substantial lead on his signature issue of national security seemed to erode in the waning days of the campaign.

Forecasts of a potentially large turnout also provided a measure of encouragement to Kerry, the Massachusetts senator, whose support was high among self-described new voters.

But there was no indication how these factors would play out in the ultra-tight election that could cap the longest and costliest contest in US history with a wild finish to rival the 2000 vote.

Tied on polls

Opinion polls showed no space between the candidates. Five surveys gave Bush a statistically insignificant lead of one or two points while Fox News showed Kerry up two points and the American Research Group had a 48-48 percent tie.

Independent Ralph Nader generally polled one percent but still held the potential to siphon off crucial votes from Kerry in swing states. The number of late undecided voters dwindled to between one and five percent.

The race was also too close to call on the state level, where both camps vied for a majority of the 538 electoral votes that decide the presidency and are awarded in separate, mostly winner-take-all, contests.

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania 'pivotal'

The three states generally seen as pivotal, Florida in the Southeast, Ohio in the Midwest and Pennsyvlania in the East were all considered tossups, as were half a dozen other "battlegrounds" that could swing the balance.

The only movement appeared to be a late shift in voter appreciation of Bush's security credentials amid continuing bad news out of Iraq and the re-emergence of terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden in a videotape Friday.

The CBS survey showed Bush's lead on who could best protect the country against terrorism down among registered voters from 70-62 percent recorded from Thursday to Saturday to 64-62 percent over the weekend.

His advantage over Kerry on leadership capacity, the cornerstone of the Republican's re-election bid as a "war president," shrunk from 62-52 to 58-54 percent, according to the CBS findings.

Late surveys also suggested that Kerry was well-placed to benefit from an expected surge in voter turnout, with some experts predicting as many as 15 million more Americans could cast ballots on top of the 106 million four years ago.

A Washington Post poll also gave Kerry a 59-39 percent margin among likely voters 18 to 30 years old, a traditionally erratic voting group the Democrats were counting on to get fired up Tuesday.

- AFP