National polls split

2004-10-11 22:04

Washington - National polls were split on Monday on who was leading the United States presidential race, but Democrat John Kerry showed signs of making headway against President George W Bush in the decisive state-by-state battle.

A Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll three weeks before the November 2 ballot put Bush on top 51% to 46% and a survey by the Rasmussen organisation gave the Republican a four-point margin at 49.5% to 45.5%.

But, a tracking poll by the Zogby International group showed Kerry, the four-term senator from Massachusetts, with a three-point edge at 47%-44%, heading into the final stretch of an acrimonious, marathon campaign.

The conflicting results highlighted a race still close to call and which showed every indication of careening to the same cliffhanger finish as four years ago when the outcome hinged on a bitter recount in the state of Florida.

Third clash set for Wednesday

"This is so much like 2000, it's scary," wrote pollster John Zogby in a commentary on his survey on Sunday.

"There is a lot of campaigning to go. Remember that in 2000 the lead changed several times in October."

Kerry pulled even with Bush on the strength of a commanding performance over Bush in their first televised debate on September 30.

A second encounter last week was judged a tie and a third is scheduled for Wednesday.

The Democrat's most-significant gains, several analysts and commentators said, were in a string of so-called battleground states that would decide the presidency on the particular US system of electoral votes.

The candidates both took their campaigns to the western US on Monday as they geared for a final debate in the city of Tempe, Arizona, that would focus on domestic issues after two rounds of fireworks on Iraq.

Their aides, meanwhile, were busy crunching numbers and allocating resources to come up with a majority of the 538 electoral votes apportioned among the states and earned in separate, mostly winner-take-all contests.

Kerry's bearing down

Bush won in 2000 by five electors while losing the popular tally to vice-president Al Gore by more than half a million votes, and the electoral chessboard looked every bit as tight this year.

The president was on a roll before the debates and still appeared to have an edge.

But analysts and a survey by CNN showed Kerry bearing down in several swing states that could help him pull out a comeback win.

Some analysts suggested the outcome might come down to Ohio, a midwestern state with 20 electoral votes that has been particularly hit by job losses that Kerry rarely forgets to mention on the campaign trail.

Both sides worked overtime to turn out voters in Ohio and the Republicans succeeded in putting a referendum measure to ban gay marriages on the state ballot, which could further energise their conservative base.

- AFP