Who will lead the church?
2005-02-25 09:00
Vatican City - The illness of 84-year-old Pope John Paul II intensified speculation yesterday about who will succeed him. But one thing is certain: the choice will reflect the profound changes within the Roman Catholic Church in the past decades.
The next pope will be elected in a secret conclave - a meeting held under lock and key - by the 120 cardinals under the age of 80, the maximum allowed under a law adopted in 1975 by Paul VI.
Of these 120 cardinals, nearly 100 have been appointed by Pope John Paul II, and are likely, according to Vatican watchers, to reflect his conservative views in the choice of successor.
The next pontiff is virtually certain to come from among the cardinals themselves, although the prelates can in theory elect any baptised male. Pope Gregory XVI 1831 was a priest, and Cardinal Alfonso Borgia was a layman before becoming Pope Callistus III in 1455.
Until the election of John Paul II it used to be safe to predict that the next pope would be an Italian.
Next pope 'could come from anywhere'
But a split in the Italian camp in 1978, accompanied by a last-minute push by a group of conservatives, particularly Americans, brought about what was then considered a revolution - the election of a Polish pontiff, the first non-Italian to head the See of Rome in 455 years.
Under John Paul II, the College of Cardinals has become so internationalised and decentralised that the next pope could come from anywhere in the world, although there is a powerful sentiment to return to tradition and elect an Italian.
If this were to happen, strong candidates would include archbishops Dionigi Tettamanzi, 70, of Milan, Angelo Scola, 63, of Venice, Tarcisio Bertone, 70, of Genoa, Angelo Sodano, 77, the Vatican Secretary of State, and Giovanni Battista Re, 71, the head of the Vatican congregation or department for bishops.
Another important factor is age. If the cardinals are reasonably unanimous about the policies they want the church to follow, they are likely to elect a young man, as Karol Wojtyla was on his election in 1978, to carry out these policies far into the future.
If they cannot agree on policies, they are more likely to choose an elderly candidate as a temporising measure.
One of the key younger candidates cited by Vatican watchers is Archbishop Christoph Schonborn of Vienna, who is 60.
If the cardinals decide on a non-Italian candidate, the field is wide open.
Africa, where the church is facing competition from Islam and other confessions, has a strong candidate in Cardinal Francis Arinze from Nigeria, 72, who heads the Vatican congregation for divine worship.
- AFP