Lebanese fear all-out war

2008-05-12 07:22

Beirut, Lebanon - Lebanon hung between fears of all-out war and hopes of political compromise on Sunday even as government supporters and opponents battled with rockets and machine guns in the mountains overlooking the capital.

Clashes shifted to outside Beirut over the weekend. Sunday's fighting saw the collapse of pro-government forces in the Aley region near the capital, a stronghold of anti-Syrian Druse leader Walid Jumblatt.

Beirut was quiet a day after Hezbollah gunmen left the streets, heeding an army call for the Shi'ite fighters to clear out. The city had been the focus of four days of Sunni-Shi'ite clashes that culminated with Hezbollah seizing large swaths of Muslim West Beirut - demonstrating its military might in a showdown with the government.

So far, 38 people have been killed in clashes that began on Wednesday, the worst sectarian violence since Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war.

The violence grew out of a power struggle between the Hezbollah-led opposition and the US-backed government. The opposition quit the Cabinet 18 months ago, demanding larger representation that would give them veto power over government decisions.

The deadlock has kept parliament from electing a new president since November.

Across the country, there were fears of a slide into civil war.

'The opposition is in control now'

"I don't believe this is the end," said Hala, a 32-year-old employee of an insurance company who lives in a posh area of the Muslim sector that saw fighting three days ago. "They haven't solved the problem yet. There will be another round."

Despite the fierce fighting though, some analysts see Hezbollah's demonstration of its power as paving the way for a solution to end the political crisis.

Analysts said the opposition now appears to have the upper hand, which could force the government to compromise.

"The opposition is in control now. These military victories have to be translated politically," said Amal Saad Ghorayeb, a political science professor who is an expert on Hezbollah.

"You can't have a civil war when there is one group that is militarily superior to the others," she said, referring to Hezbollah.

The violence was sparked when the government confronted Hezbollah with decisions to sack the chief of airport security for alleged ties to the militant group and to declare Hezbollah's private telephone network illegal. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the decisions amounted to a declaration of war.

Ghorayeb said nobody expected Hezbollah to go this far in retaliating for the government's attack against it. She expects the group's achievements on the ground to force the government into a compromise.

A golden opportunity

"Hezbollah crossed the threshold and gained its own momentum," she said. "Given that Beirut fell so quickly, the opposition saw that this was a golden opportunity to force the government into a compromise that would be tilted in its favour."

Hezbollah's show of force in Beirut was a blow to Washington. The US has long considered Hezbollah a terrorist group and condemned its ties to Syria and Iran. The Bush administration has been a strong supporter of Saniora's government and its army for the last three years.

The conflict has heightened concerns in the Middle East and the West over Iran's growing influence and its intentions in the region.

With Beirut mostly pacified, clashes shifted to outside the capital.

Overnight, there were fierce clashes in the north, particularly in the city of Tripoli. One woman was killed.

Heavy fighting between government supporters and opponents broke out on Sunday in the central mountain town of Aytat and surrounding areas, about 15km from Beirut. The sounds of heavy machine gun fire and explosions rolled across the capital.

- AP