Fears of Iraq genocide

2008-04-06 21:55

Bradley Brooks

Baghdad - The United States is no closer to achieving its goals in Iraq than it was a year ago but a quick military withdrawal could lead to massive chaos and even genocide, according to a report released on Sunday by a US think tank.

The US Institute of Peace report was written by experts who advised the Iraq Study Group, a panel mandated by Congress to offer recommendations on US policy in Iraq in 2006.

The report was released two days before top commander General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker brief Congress on the situation in Iraq and prospects for American troop reductions.

Their recommendations, which US President George W Bush has signalled he will accept, could largely determine the course of action in Iraq for the coming year.

Factors outside US control

The report cited security improvements in Iraq since the buildup of US forces in 2007, but credited factors outside US control - such as help from mostly Sunni fighters who turned against al-Qaeda and a truce by a Shi'ite militia.

"The US is no closer to being able to leave Iraq than it was a year ago," it concluded.

"Lasting political development could take five to ten years of full, unconditional US commitment to Iraq."

A substantial reduction of US troops in Iraq risks "a complete failure of the Iraqi state, massive chaos and even genocide", it warned.

The US Embassy in Baghdad did not immediately respond to an e-mailed request for comment.

If the Americans opt for a reduced commitment, the report said, they should focus on improving political and economic development.

But an unconditional withdrawal of US troops from Iraq must be coupled with an increased American military presence in neighbouring countries, ready to intervene in case of a major crisis in Iraq, the report said.

The US should also redouble efforts to build regional political alliances, it added.

In the past year, Iraq's parliament has passed legislation the US considers key to the country's future stability, including relaxing a ban on former Saddam Hussein supporters in government, an amnesty for some prisoners, increased powers at the provincial level and approval of a national budget.

But implementation of those policies had been uneven, the report said.

"Without political progress, the US risks getting bogged down in Iraq for a long time to come," it concluded.

- AP